NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	2.7 [1194]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +9.7%
Toronto Raptors	77		Comeback	1.4 [697]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -12.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	7	94%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Travis Best	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.02	6	86%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	16	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	10	90%	0.01
Mike James	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	6	69%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	79%	0.07	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Rasual Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Lampley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Ken Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	40%	-0.05	1	0.00	3	67%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	8	77%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	14	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	3	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	8	28%	-0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.00	0.00	8	41%	-0.06	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.17	-0.01	-0.06	10	21%	-0.09	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.7	29.2	17.3	30.7	2.4	27.6	132.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.4%

TOR -3.6%

MIA +8.3%

MIA +1.8%

TOR -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	18.4	15.5	112.8	89.5	101.6
season	16.3	16.2		94.6	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.9		105.1	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	12.9	14.9	15.2	15.0
TOR	21.5	19.9	15.7	17.5	18.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	71	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.30	25	-5	30	15.3	14.0	1.27	18.7	17.4	1.23
Brian Grant	53	53	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.25	22	-2	24	15.4	14.5	0.91	18.6	18.2	0.32
Travis Best	49	48	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.13	17	3	14	15.5	14.5	1.03	18.2	18.7	-0.43
Eddie Jones	51	50	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.14	16	4	12	15.5	14.3	1.19	19.1	17.6	1.52
Vladimir Stepania	40	39	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.29	21	-1	22	15.4	14.7	0.71	19.7	17.4	2.38
Mike James	29	29	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.08	10	10	0	15.1	15.0	0.03	20.3	17.5	2.82
Malik Allen	36	36	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	16	-12	15.0	15.1	-0.13	18.0	18.8	-0.81
Anthony Carter	33	34	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	16	-12	13.8	15.8	-2.04	18.3	18.6	-0.29
LaPhonso Ellis	32	32	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	20	-20	14.4	15.4	-1.07	18.5	18.4	0.14
Rasual Butler	14	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	25	-30	14.2	15.2	-0.99	15.5	19.1	-3.52
Sean Lampley	11	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	27	-34	14.2	15.2	-0.99	14.8	19.0	-4.19
Ken Johnson	11	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	27	-34	14.2	15.2	-0.99	14.8	19.0	-4.19

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Jefferies	17	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-27	34	15.6	19.1	-3.48	14.7	15.1	-0.44
Jermaine Jackson	29	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-21	22	16.9	19.2	-2.38	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Lindsey Hunter	27	26	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.23	-13	-7	-6	21.3	17.2	4.11	14.4	15.3	-0.89
Michael Bradley	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-14	8	17.6	19.0	-1.40	14.0	15.7	-1.69
Greg Foster	26	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.12	-11	-9	-2	18.7	18.3	0.30	16.3	14.5	1.86
Jelani McCoy	65	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-13	6	18.1	19.5	-1.37	14.5	16.8	-2.27
Jerome Williams	54	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.10	-14	-6	-8	19.0	17.6	1.40	15.7	14.0	1.69
Morris Peterson	55	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.08	-16	-4	-12	18.4	18.5	-0.07	15.8	13.6	2.26
Alvin Williams	53	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.13	-20	0	-20	19.4	17.0	2.39	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Voshon Lenard	72	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.13	-21	1	-22	18.2	19.4	-1.18	15.1	15.0	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 127, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
MIN 126, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
IND 113, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%