NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	126		Excitement	10.8 [42]		MVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): +24.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	119		Comeback	3.7 [292]		LVP	Metta World Peace (IND): -34.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,0.06,0.15,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.06	0.18	-0.00	15	65%	0.34	1	-0.10	16	87%	0.11
Jamaal Tinsley	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.13	0.01	15	68%	0.39	4	-0.22	1	100%	0.02
Austin Croshere	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	6	73%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Reggie Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	83%	0.15	2	-0.08	10	90%	0.06
Jonathan Bender	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Brad Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Metta World Peace	-0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.35,-0.34	-0.12	-0.23	-0.01	12	40%	-0.13	3	-0.22	6	50%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	-0.01	0.14	-0.01	14	47%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	90%	0.14	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	17	62%	0.13	4	-0.12	6	83%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	6	75%	0.10	2	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.01	18	46%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	6	69%	-0.03	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.13,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.2,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.18	-0.01	21	51%	-0.03	3	-0.19	9	89%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	30.6	14.8	27.3	2.5	41.2	0.8	15.2	157.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +30.5%

IND +47.9%

MIL -0.6%

MIL -16.4%

MIL -11.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.2	15.5	118.9	109.2	101.6
season	15.4	15.4		102.2	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		106.5	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	14.9	16.8	13.9	15.3	17.4	15.4
MIL	13.4	14.5	14.9	14.1	14.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	84	87	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.44	7	0	7	15.0	16.9	-1.92	13.7	16.3	-2.58
Reggie Miller	78	81	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-6	19	14.9	16.8	-1.90	14.7	12.7	2.01
Jermaine O'Neal	94	95	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	3	1	15.1	17.7	-2.57	13.9	16.4	-2.54
Jamaal Tinsley	73	76	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.24	3	4	-1	15.0	16.2	-1.11	14.1	14.5	-0.39
Brad Miller	52	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	4	-1	14.1	16.7	-2.61	13.9	14.5	-0.51
Al Harrington	46	47	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	7	-7	16.5	14.5	1.97	13.8	14.5	-0.71
Jonathan Bender	20	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	10	-13	17.5	14.9	2.67	14.0	14.2	-0.20
Ron Mercer	46	46	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	11	-15	16.4	14.6	1.85	15.1	13.5	1.59
Austin Croshere	28	30	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.24	5	2	3	16.6	15.0	1.61	15.4	13.7	1.69

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Caffey	42	41	0.35	-0.85	1.20	-0.00	12	-19	31	15.0	13.7	1.21	16.4	14.8	1.64
Kevin Ollie	33	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-2	-3	15.8	13.5	2.26	15.1	15.5	-0.42
Sam Cassell	77	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.14	2	-9	11	14.0	14.8	-0.81	15.1	16.0	-0.86
Dan Gadzuric	9	8	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	1	-9	16.2	14.0	2.19	14.7	15.4	-0.69
Ray Allen	95	92	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-6	5	13.7	17.7	-4.02	15.4	15.3	0.12
Joel Przybilla	45	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	0	-7	13.6	14.6	-1.00	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Tim Thomas	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-4	1	14.3	13.8	0.52	15.4	15.3	0.16
Michael Redd	64	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	3	-13	14.5	13.8	0.74	15.6	15.0	0.59
Anthony Mason	90	87	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.39	-8	1	-9	13.8	16.3	-2.49	15.2	16.1	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.67,0.28,0.54,0.31,0.21,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 129, ATL 124	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.45,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.28,0.54,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.02,0	89.8%
SAS 126, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.68,0.63,0.57,0.27,0.46,0.25,0.11,0.03,0,0	88.9%
IND 104, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.29,0.43,0.63,0.59,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.67,0.28,0.46,0.31,0.29,0.1,0.02,0	88.7%