NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	102		Excitement	5.8 [618]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +10.2%
Orlando Magic	112		Comeback	1.0 [667]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -12.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	72%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Soumaila Samake	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	58%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	46%	-0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	20	56%	0.01	4	-0.11	10	60%	-0.02
Kobe Bryant	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.16,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	31	51%	0.01	3	-0.14	13	77%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.06	-0.02	9	56%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	16	61%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	11	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	28	53%	0.00	3	-0.05	16	75%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	56%	-0.00	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.6	33.5	17.6	28.1	2.7	37.2	150.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +12.7%

ORL +12.0%

LAL -1.1%

ORL +22.8%

ORL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	ORL	NBA	LAL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.5	15.5	105.2	119.1	101.6
season	15.4	14.6		105.0	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.1		103.1	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.9	15.7	15.7	14.3	15.6
ORL	15.1	14.9	12.5	15.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kareem Rush	18	17	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-13	16	15.2	15.7	-0.51	14.2	14.6	-0.32
Soumaila Samake	5	4	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-10	10	18.0	15.5	2.49	19.0	14.3	4.70
Mark Madsen	30	32	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-12	14	16.6	15.2	1.44	15.3	14.1	1.28
Brian Shaw	25	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-13	16	16.6	15.3	1.24	14.8	14.4	0.45
Slava Medvedenko	5	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-5	0	14.8	15.7	-0.88	13.4	14.6	-1.16
Robert Horry	78	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-7	4	15.1	17.7	-2.54	14.6	14.1	0.51
Derek Fisher	73	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-1	-8	14.9	17.8	-2.86	14.7	13.9	0.78
Shaquille O'Neal	75	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.10	-14	4	-18	15.7	15.4	0.36	13.9	16.3	-2.33
Kobe Bryant	94	91	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.18	-12	2	-14	15.5	19.7	-4.16	14.4	18.7	-4.30
Rick Fox	82	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.17	-15	5	-20	16.2	12.7	3.44	14.4	15.5	-1.15

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	82	86	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-3	16	14.9	11.9	2.96	15.7	15.5	0.21
Mike Miller	90	93	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	1	8	14.5	13.7	0.78	15.4	20.7	-5.33
Pat Garrity	72	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	3	4	14.9	13.2	1.66	15.4	16.7	-1.31
Shawn Kemp	51	53	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	4	2	14.1	15.0	-0.96	14.5	17.1	-2.62
Grant Hill	52	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.14	5	5	0	14.1	15.0	-0.99	15.5	15.9	-0.41
Darrell Armstrong	58	60	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	5	0	14.6	14.4	0.23	15.7	15.6	0.07
Andrew DeClercq	37	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	4	2	14.6	14.4	0.20	17.6	14.4	3.23
Pat Burke	21	20	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	7	-4	14.1	14.6	-0.52	17.7	15.1	2.66
Jacque Vaughn	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	11.0	14.6	-3.58	11.0	15.7	-4.69
Olumide Oyedeji	4	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	12	-14	14.0	14.5	-0.52	13.7	15.7	-1.97
Jeryl Sasser	1	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	12	-14	6.0	14.6	-8.59	22.0	15.6	6.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 116, POR 130	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.78,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1	95.0%
GSW 101, UTA 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.4%
MIL 90, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.3%