NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	7.7 [286]		MVP	Junior Harrington (DEN): +29.0%
Denver Nuggets	85		Comeback	15.7 [17]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -38.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.05	-0.01	10	64%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	13	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	7	60%	0.00	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	-0.00	10	48%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.38	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.38	-0.22	-0.19	-0.03	20	37%	-0.20	5	-0.18	9	67%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.29	0.29	-0.01	0.31	0.00	5	60%	0.35	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.17	0.00	7	67%	0.22	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	12	66%	0.16	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.04
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.01	18	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Savovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	8	42%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	12	17%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.7	27.3	15.5	26.4	2.4	32.5	132.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.6%

SAS -6.0%

DEN +5.4%

DEN +12.6%

DEN +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	17.7	15.5	92.0	97.7	101.6
season	15.7	15.7		102.5	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		99.4	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.3	14.6	15.3	16.9	15.2
DEN	13.9	23.3	17.5	17.4	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	31	31	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.04	8	-12	20	14.4	15.7	-1.26	19.7	16.6	3.09
Steven Smith	43	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-3	2	15.5	15.0	0.49	17.6	17.8	-0.18
Kevin Willis	16	15	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.08	-4	0	-4	16.5	15.0	1.54	17.6	17.7	-0.11
Stephen Jackson	25	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-1	-2	13.2	16.0	-2.85	14.3	18.9	-4.66
Steve Kerr	20	20	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.06	-6	2	-8	12.8	15.9	-3.09	15.4	18.4	-2.91
Danny Ferry	1	2	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-2	0	5.0	15.4	-10.36	1.0	18.1	-17.08
Bruce Bowen	58	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-8	12	16.3	13.2	3.14	19.5	14.0	5.53
Tony Parker	68	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-6	8	15.9	12.8	3.09	18.4	15.4	2.91
Tim Duncan	80	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	0	-4	15.6	11.7	3.84	17.1	23.9	-6.81
Manu Ginobili	49	49	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.43	-6	2	-8	15.0	15.5	-0.54	17.9	17.4	0.43
Malik Rose	49	49	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.49	-8	4	-12	14.8	15.8	-1.05	17.5	18.0	-0.50

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Junior Harrington	35	37	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.46	18	-14	32	14.4	19.9	-5.46	15.1	15.4	-0.27
Donnell Harvey	49	49	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.52	8	-4	12	16.9	18.7	-1.72	15.9	14.4	1.44
James Posey	67	68	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.29	14	-10	24	18.0	16.7	1.29	15.8	13.3	2.44
Juwan Howard	63	65	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	18.3	16.2	2.05	16.2	12.6	3.56
Nene	44	43	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	1	2	19.2	16.1	3.16	17.4	13.2	4.17
Predrag Savovic	13	11	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	-1	6	16.2	18.0	-1.81	12.6	15.6	-2.97
Rodney White	32	34	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	7	-10	17.4	17.9	-0.50	13.6	16.3	-2.69
Chris Andersen	24	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	4	-4	16.2	18.3	-2.05	12.6	16.2	-3.56
Mark Blount	31	31	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	10	-16	16.3	18.5	-2.17	13.6	16.1	-2.46
Ryan Bowen	18	20	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	8	-12	17.3	17.8	-0.52	14.9	15.3	-0.37
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	7	8	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	9	-14	21.9	17.3	4.53	12.6	15.5	-2.88
Kenny Satterfield	52	51	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.08	-14	18	-32	19.9	14.4	5.46	15.4	15.1	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.15,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 91, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.41,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.15,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.55,0.26,1	90.9%
MEM 97, MIA 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.26,1	90.6%
GSW 112, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.34,0.32,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.45,0.32,0.28,1	90.6%