NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	88		Excitement	6.4 [520]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): +28.5%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	2.8 [853]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -27.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	8	70%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	52%	0.02	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Jannero Pargo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.01	10	67%	0.11	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Kareem Rush	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	11	36%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	6	58%	0.01	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.15	-0.12	0.00	25	39%	-0.25	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.19	0.10	0.01	18	78%	0.34	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	8	78%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	80%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.27,-0.3,-0.25,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.22	0.02	-0.04	19	33%	-0.09	3	-0.07	10	40%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.6	30.3	17.4	28.8	2.5	33.3	138.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +62.9%

LAL -24.2%

SAS +13.7%

LAL -3.1%

SAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.5	95.7	103.3	101.6
season	15.4	15.7		105.0	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		96.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.9	14.4	15.5	14.8	15.1
SAS	19.1	15.0	17.2	14.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	66	67	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-14	21	14.3	17.1	-2.73	17.4	13.0	4.37
Jannero Pargo	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-9	11	0.0	15.1	-15.12	23.0	16.1	6.89
Samaki Walker	59	61	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.20	6	-13	19	15.6	14.3	1.23	17.4	13.7	3.73
Robert Horry	63	62	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-11	15	15.6	14.1	1.43	17.9	12.7	5.22
Kobe Bryant	84	83	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-5	3	14.7	20.0	-5.35	16.4	14.4	1.93
Rick Fox	75	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-7	7	15.6	12.9	2.74	16.3	15.4	0.98
Slava Medvedenko	34	32	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.02	-16	9	-25	15.2	15.1	0.09	12.8	18.0	-5.22
Kareem Rush	26	25	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.11	-18	11	-29	16.8	14.4	2.41	12.3	17.6	-5.31
Brian Shaw	53	51	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.20	-18	11	-29	14.2	16.4	-2.20	14.4	18.4	-3.98

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	41	42	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.28	19	-12	31	14.4	17.6	-3.15	15.8	14.6	1.23
Steve Kerr	47	47	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.11	20	-13	33	13.2	19.3	-6.12	15.8	14.4	1.32
Manu Ginobili	34	36	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.26	13	-6	19	15.3	16.7	-1.41	13.6	16.1	-2.43
Stephen Jackson	61	59	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-4	15	15.4	17.6	-2.20	14.1	17.0	-2.98
Tim Duncan	85	85	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.26	2	5	-3	16.3	15.1	1.13	14.9	17.6	-2.65
Kevin Willis	15	15	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.04	7	0	7	16.2	16.2	0.02	12.9	15.5	-2.61
Malik Rose	35	35	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	2	3	15.7	16.5	-0.71	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Anthony Goldwire	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	9	-11	23.0	16.1	6.89	4.0	15.2	-11.24
Bruce Bowen	33	33	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	13	-19	18.4	14.9	3.44	16.7	14.3	2.41
David Robinson	25	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.13	-10	17	-27	18.5	15.3	3.15	17.7	14.1	3.57
Steven Smith	29	30	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.13	-12	19	-31	18.9	15.0	3.91	17.6	13.9	3.63
Tony Parker	54	52	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.10	-12	19	-31	17.7	14.1	3.63	13.9	16.6	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.68,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 96, IND 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.66,0.78,0.86,0.77,0.65,0.69,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.93,1,1,1,1	92.8%
OKC 99, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.78,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	91.8%
MIN 110, TOR 124	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.79,0.8,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1	91.2%