NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	96		Excitement	7.6 [299]		MVP	Steve Nash (DAL): +32.4%
New Jersey Nets	88		Comeback	4.5 [190]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -28.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Nash	0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.14	0.16	-0.02	18	75%	0.39	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Shawn Bradley	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.10	0.00	10	55%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raja Bell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Walt Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	20	50%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.22,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.29,-0.29	-0.14	-0.14	0.01	18	43%	-0.11	5	-0.17	6	100%	0.04

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.11,0.22,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.00	10	50%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.02	17	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	36%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	4	46%	-0.03	3	-0.07	5	40%	-0.04
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	20	52%	0.09	5	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	9	50%	0.00	5	-0.14	4	75%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	9	22%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	0.6	26.5	15.4	19.8	1.0	28.3	118.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +4.7%

DAL +0.7%

DAL +7.9%

DAL +27.9%

DAL +8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NJN	NBA	DAL	NJN	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	15.5	102.1	94.6	101.6
season	15.1	15.0		108.6	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.3		96.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	18.5	18.1	15.6	16.3
NJN	14.7	13.7	14.6	15.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	73	72	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.41	15	-7	22	15.8	17.9	-2.02	14.6	14.1	0.53
Dirk Nowitzki	82	82	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.33	14	-6	20	16.2	16.7	-0.53	15.1	9.7	5.42
Michael Finley	88	86	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	2	4	16.2	16.8	-0.58	14.6	12.9	1.78
Walt Williams	40	42	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-1	10	15.4	17.0	-1.59	14.9	14.2	0.68
Eduardo Najera	39	37	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-2	12	16.7	16.0	0.74	13.7	15.0	-1.33
Shawn Bradley	60	58	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	6	-4	16.4	16.1	0.36	14.6	14.3	0.31
Raja Bell	9	9	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	6	-4	18.6	16.0	2.51	11.4	14.8	-3.39
Adrian Griffin	36	36	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	15.2	17.0	-1.77	13.6	15.1	-1.46
Avery Johnson	21	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.14	-7	15	-22	17.9	15.8	2.02	14.1	14.6	-0.53

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Williams	41	42	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.02	5	-13	18	13.1	15.6	-2.43	17.9	15.0	2.88
Richard Jefferson	45	46	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.03	3	-11	14	13.7	15.2	-1.50	15.9	16.7	-0.82
Rodney Rogers	47	48	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-10	12	13.6	15.4	-1.75	15.8	16.8	-0.93
Jason Collins	11	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-7	6	12.8	14.7	-1.91	17.9	16.1	1.80
Anthony Johnson	9	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-4	0	17.8	14.2	3.62	18.4	16.1	2.28
Kerry Kittles	69	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-6	4	14.6	14.3	0.29	16.7	15.1	1.56
Jason Kidd	84	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-4	0	14.2	17.8	-3.62	16.1	18.4	-2.28
Dikembe Mutombo	48	48	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	1	-10	15.2	13.8	1.41	15.1	17.5	-2.37
Kenyon Martin	70	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.31	-9	1	-10	15.1	12.7	2.46	16.4	16.0	0.39
Lucious Harris	41	42	-0.90	0.40	-1.31	-0.29	-21	13	-34	16.2	13.2	3.02	15.8	16.7	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.23,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.55,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.4,0.31,0.07,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 102, MIL 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.29,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.05,0.01,0,0	91.7%
DEN 109, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.2,0.01,0,0,0	91.4%
ORL 86, IND 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.15,0.08,0	91.0%