NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	7.7 [290]		MVP	Allen Iverson (PHI): +36.3%
Philadelphia 76ers	99		Comeback	1.5 [536]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -28.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12	0.00	0.11	-0.01	5	50%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Kerr	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.01	12	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	6	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	60%	0.00	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	14	50%	0.08	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.17,-0.09,-0.15,-0.07,-0.18,-0.29	-0.14	-0.15	0.00	22	48%	-0.17	4	-0.12	16	56%	-0.04

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.15,0.36	0.36	0.06	0.29	-0.01	25	61%	0.43	3	-0.06	11	91%	0.10
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.00	10	55%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.03	21	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Efthimios Rentzias	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	12	46%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	31.1	16.4	26.4	2.5	30.4	134.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +2.7%

PHI +19.5%

PHI +11.4%

PHI +8.1%

PHI +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHI	NBA	SAS	PHI	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	15.5	101.1	104.2	101.6
season	15.7	15.3		102.5	102.1
opponent	15.5	15.4		99.9	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.9	13.8	18.1	16.3	15.4
PHI	14.3	15.0	15.4	16.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	36	36	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.15	9	-14	23	15.5	15.4	0.12	15.6	15.0	0.55
Manu Ginobili	28	29	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-8	11	16.6	14.9	1.73	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Bruce Bowen	48	51	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-7	9	16.6	14.1	2.49	15.5	15.0	0.49
Danny Ferry	6	7	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	2	-9	16.5	15.3	1.18	11.3	15.6	-4.27
Malik Rose	14	16	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	3	-11	12.2	16.0	-3.75	14.5	15.4	-0.89
Tony Parker	75	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-9	13	15.4	15.3	0.08	15.7	13.5	2.21
David Robinson	46	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.31	-2	-3	1	16.2	14.6	1.54	15.2	15.3	-0.14
Tim Duncan	86	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.4	15.3	0.12	15.3	14.2	1.13
Steve Kerr	44	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	4	-13	14.4	16.3	-1.96	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Stephen Jackson	82	85	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.33	-12	7	-19	14.8	19.8	-5.01	15.5	13.3	2.17

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron McKie	74	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	2	1	15.4	14.9	0.49	16.4	11.9	4.46
Eric Snow	75	73	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	5	-5	15.3	14.9	0.37	15.5	15.1	0.32
Brian Skinner	50	47	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	-1	7	15.3	15.1	0.21	15.2	15.6	-0.37
Keith Van Horn	74	74	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	15.0	16.1	-1.16	15.7	14.2	1.56
Allen Iverson	76	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	6	-7	14.9	16.4	-1.47	14.9	17.5	-2.61
Art Long	11	9	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.04	8	-3	11	14.7	15.3	-0.58	13.8	15.6	-1.79
John Salmons	16	15	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.05	8	-3	11	14.0	15.5	-1.49	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Mark Bryant	10	11	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	-1	7	14.8	15.3	-0.49	13.5	15.7	-2.20
Greg Buckner	44	43	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	0	5	15.9	14.7	1.20	14.7	16.0	-1.39
Efthimios Rentzias	2	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	6	-7	17.0	15.2	1.80	5.7	15.7	-10.06
Todd MacCulloch	43	42	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	16	-27	15.7	14.8	0.87	16.6	14.4	2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.47,0.72,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.32,0.58,1	92.3%
MIA 103, CHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.76,0.72,1	91.6%
DET 83, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.78,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.74,1	91.5%