NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	115		Excitement	7.7 [292]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +28.8%
Orlando Magic	109		Comeback	61.5 [2]		LVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): -11.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.18,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.12	0.18	0.00	18	67%	0.31	1	-0.03	12	100%	0.13
Jerome Williams	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.21	0.15	0.08	0.02	18	71%	0.23	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Michael Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Mamadou N'diaye	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	12	47%	-0.07	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Greg Foster	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	19	59%	-0.01	5	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	6	85%	0.12	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.05	-0.02	28	55%	0.03	0	0.00	13	85%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.00	11	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pat Burke	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	5	50%	-0.08	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12	-0.12	0.00	-0.12	0.00	9	58%	-0.09	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.7	34.5	16.8	30.2	2.7	39.1	147.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +28.4%

TOR +3.1%

TOR +47.5%

ORL -30.6%

TOR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	13.3	15.5	117.3	112.4	101.6
season	16.2	14.6		98.8	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.3		103.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.9	18.0	16.4	15.7	16.2
ORL	12.8	13.3	13.0	14.3	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	76	77	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.31	20	-14	34	16.1	16.5	-0.44	13.7	11.9	1.73
Greg Foster	53	52	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.35	17	-11	28	15.2	17.4	-2.25	13.6	13.0	0.64
Morris Peterson	76	74	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-8	22	15.7	18.0	-2.37	13.6	12.5	1.10
Jerome Williams	79	79	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.37	7	-1	8	15.8	17.8	-2.03	13.3	13.2	0.12
Voshon Lenard	81	81	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	-1	8	15.9	17.8	-1.96	13.5	12.4	1.06
Mamadou N'diaye	28	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	9	-12	17.3	15.8	1.51	12.8	13.5	-0.75
Chris Jefferies	18	19	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.06	-7	13	-20	19.9	15.4	4.58	14.4	13.1	1.30
Michael Bradley	33	31	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.10	-10	16	-26	16.9	15.9	1.02	12.5	13.7	-1.28
Lindsey Hunter	46	43	-0.48	0.98	-1.46	-0.04	-15	21	-36	17.1	15.4	1.70	12.0	14.4	-2.33

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	39	40	0.38	-0.88	1.27	0.06	11	-17	28	13.6	13.1	0.45	15.8	16.5	-0.68
Jacque Vaughn	34	35	0.19	-0.69	0.89	0.13	2	-8	10	13.6	13.1	0.50	16.7	15.9	0.75
Andrew DeClercq	42	44	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.11	0	-6	6	13.3	13.3	-0.02	17.0	15.6	1.40
Jeryl Sasser	9	8	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	-3	0	15.1	13.1	1.97	17.9	16.1	1.82
Ryan Humphrey	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-5	4	12.4	13.4	-1.03	15.3	16.3	-1.01
Shawn Kemp	40	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-12	18	13.1	13.5	-0.33	15.3	16.9	-1.52
Tracy McGrady	87	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.37	-4	-2	-2	13.4	12.4	1.03	16.4	14.8	1.56
Darrell Armstrong	59	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.49	-4	-2	-2	12.5	14.5	-1.98	16.2	16.2	-0.00
Pat Garrity	69	68	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.30	-12	6	-18	13.4	13.1	0.25	16.2	16.2	-0.04
Pat Burke	31	31	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.26	-15	9	-24	13.6	13.2	0.43	15.2	16.7	-1.43
Grant Hill	65	65	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.41	-10	4	-14	13.4	13.2	0.10	16.4	15.8	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.87,0.69,0.54,0.32,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 109, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.61,0.8,0.64,0.34,0.42,0	90.5%
POR 95, LAL 91	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.71,0.71,0.22,0.26,0	90.3%
LAL 87, SAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.86,0.85,0.57,0.42,0	89.9%