NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	102		Excitement	6.4 [529]		MVP	Jacque Vaughn (ATL): +14.0%
Atlanta Hawks	95		Comeback	1.6 [707]		LVP	Jason Terry (ATL): -17.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	7	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	16	62%	0.13	2	-0.07	5	60%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	75%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Jud Buechler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	17	39%	-0.08	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Troy Hudson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	15	44%	-0.08	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.03
Horace Grant	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.06	0.04	8	87%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	1	0%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	20	51%	-0.01	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.08	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	8	35%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	0.03	7	37%	-0.12	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	6	29%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.04
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	14	39%	-0.06	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	0.00	13	43%	-0.03	6	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	31.3	15.5	25.9	1.6	40.6	139.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +27.2%

ORL +18.8%

ATL -17.9%

ORL +20.3%

ORL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	13.9	14.2	15.6	99.0	93.1	102.3
season	14.6	15.5		104.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		103.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.9	13.1	14.2	15.8	13.9
ATL	14.3	13.6	14.6	14.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monty Williams	81	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-5	17	13.4	16.0	-2.63	14.1	14.3	-0.15
Tracy McGrady	74	74	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.14	16	-9	25	13.9	14.0	-0.09	14.9	12.1	2.84
Troy Hudson	76	75	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.27	11	-4	15	14.3	12.9	1.36	14.9	12.2	2.64
Andrew DeClercq	36	36	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-4	15	13.9	14.0	-0.11	15.6	13.4	2.23
Horace Grant	74	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.21	7	0	7	13.9	14.1	-0.19	14.7	12.8	1.94
Patrick Ewing	35	34	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.10	0	7	-7	14.4	13.7	0.75	13.6	14.4	-0.82
Don Reid	9	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	11	-15	18.0	13.5	4.46	15.1	14.1	1.03
Jud Buechler	12	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	10	-13	17.2	13.5	3.66	16.2	14.0	2.25
Pat Garrity	59	59	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.21	-9	16	-25	14.1	13.7	0.40	12.6	16.3	-3.65
Jaren Jackson	27	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.11	-6	13	-19	14.4	13.8	0.59	12.4	14.8	-2.39
Darrell Armstrong	32	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.10	0	7	-7	11.2	15.2	-3.98	12.0	15.2	-3.20

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cal Bowdler	13	13	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.01	4	-11	15	13.2	14.3	-1.16	14.0	13.9	0.08
Mark Strickland	26	26	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-11	15	13.3	14.5	-1.20	14.1	13.9	0.25
Hanno Mottola	40	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-6	5	13.4	14.6	-1.18	13.9	13.9	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	36	36	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	14.0	14.3	-0.30	12.6	14.6	-1.99
Jacque Vaughn	34	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-4	1	14.1	14.2	-0.03	13.4	14.2	-0.85
Jason Terry	68	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-3	-1	14.2	14.1	0.03	14.0	13.8	0.25
Toni Kukoc	69	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-6	5	13.9	14.7	-0.83	14.1	13.6	0.44
Nazr Mohammed	55	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-7	0	-7	15.1	13.1	2.05	14.5	13.3	1.27
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	92	93	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.26	-10	3	-13	14.4	11.6	2.85	14.1	12.8	1.25
Ira Newble	77	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.22	-12	5	-17	14.3	13.6	0.70	13.9	13.9	0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.18,0.31,0.1,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 94, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.31,0.22,0.02,0.02,0	94.0%
CLE 97, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.2%
SAS 103, LAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.01,0,0	93.2%