NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	87		Excitement	7.9 [245]		MVP	Erick Strickland (BOS): +27.7%
Miami Heat	82		Comeback	2.1 [331]		LVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): -28.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.16,-0.04,0.08,0.28	0.03	0.25	0.00	14	64%	0.38	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.05
Antoine Walker	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.01	12	53%	0.13	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Walter McCarty	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.01	-0.05	19	42%	0.04	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.04
Tony Delk	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	7	31%	-0.18	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.10

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.03	10	50%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.06
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	6	58%	0.11	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	65%	0.05	4	-0.14	17	82%	0.09
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	16	49%	-0.10	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	9	27%	-0.13	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.16	-0.12	0.00	8	25%	-0.14	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	30.2	16.5	28.8	2.6	34.5	143.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +37.7%

MIA -24.6%

BOS +1.5%

BOS +34.1%

BOS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	17.2	15.6	93.5	90.1	102.3
season	15.0	16.5		100.9	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		98.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.4	13.6	14.7	14.2	14.2
MIA	17.7	15.2	19.6	16.5	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	55	53	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.29	15	-10	25	13.7	14.8	-1.07	16.8	17.6	-0.78
Paul Pierce	84	84	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.34	10	-5	15	14.3	13.4	0.82	17.2	16.6	0.63
Rodney Rogers	30	30	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.23	11	-6	17	14.7	13.9	0.81	20.1	15.7	4.44
Tony Battie	68	66	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.41	2	3	-1	14.6	13.0	1.67	16.6	18.6	-2.05
Antoine Walker	89	87	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.40	0	5	-5	14.3	12.0	2.28	16.8	25.0	-8.21
Walter McCarty	31	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.09	4	1	3	13.6	14.5	-0.90	15.7	17.9	-2.21
Vitaly Potapenko	20	20	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.05	2	3	-1	12.8	14.5	-1.70	17.6	17.0	0.64
Eric Williams	44	40	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.12	-6	11	-17	14.3	14.1	0.26	18.4	16.1	2.31
Tony Delk	44	43	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.12	-13	18	-31	14.2	14.2	0.04	16.6	17.6	-1.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	17	17	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.06	1	-6	7	16.4	17.3	-0.98	13.3	14.4	-1.09
Jim Jackson	72	73	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-9	13	17.8	14.7	3.05	14.5	12.9	1.57
LaPhonso Ellis	44	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-2	-1	15.8	18.4	-2.63	13.2	15.2	-2.00
Vladimir Stepania	20	20	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	5	-15	16.0	17.5	-1.48	14.6	14.1	0.60
Eddie House	41	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-2	-1	15.4	18.6	-3.12	13.1	15.1	-1.98
Rod Strickland	52	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-2	-1	18.1	15.9	2.11	14.4	13.9	0.41
Alonzo Mourning	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-6	7	18.0	14.5	3.52	14.4	13.4	0.99
Brian Grant	61	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	17.3	16.9	0.43	15.3	12.1	3.20
Eddie Jones	80	83	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.45	-9	4	-13	17.2	16.7	0.49	13.9	16.3	-2.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.6,0.53,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 82, GSW 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.29,0.25,0.04,0	93.3%
MIL 104, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.52,0.62,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.26,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.21,0.1,0.04,0	92.2%
CHI 106, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.1,0.16,0.09,0,0	92.2%