NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	7.0 [421]		MVP	Danny Ferry (SAS): +21.7%
San Antonio Spurs	111		Comeback	1.8 [760]		LVP	Kenny Anderson (BOS): -14.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.07	0.08	-0.03	27	55%	0.23	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	9	58%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tony Delk	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.10	0.02	18	67%	0.14	6	-0.24	10	80%	0.01
Kenny Anderson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.01	0.02	13	45%	-0.03	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.16,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.14	0.01	11	69%	0.24	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.09	0.01	19	67%	0.28	4	-0.14	17	76%	0.03
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	58%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.7	27.9	16.8	26.2	2.5	34.4	135.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +20.8%

SAS +9.9%

SAS +8.0%

SAS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	16.2	15.8	15.6	115.6	123.3	102.3
season	15.0	15.8		100.9	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		98.0	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.7	16.1	15.3	16.6	16.2
SAS	14.0	15.2	16.8	17.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	44	45	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.15	7	-14	21	14.6	17.7	-3.06	15.0	16.7	-1.64
Rodney Rogers	55	55	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.21	9	-16	25	15.2	17.7	-2.55	15.2	16.9	-1.75
Erick Strickland	10	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-5	3	18.6	15.8	2.75	13.3	16.2	-2.86
Tony Delk	57	59	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-5	3	15.4	17.5	-2.05	16.5	14.5	1.98
Paul Pierce	83	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-3	-1	16.5	12.6	3.89	16.0	14.7	1.20
Tony Battie	38	38	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	7	-21	17.7	15.0	2.74	16.9	15.1	1.86
Antoine Walker	87	86	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	0	-7	16.1	18.0	-1.91	15.9	15.0	0.88
Kenny Anderson	76	75	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.27	-22	15	-37	17.0	11.7	5.26	15.9	15.4	0.53

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	52	52	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	16.8	14.5	2.33	15.4	17.1	-1.69
Antonio Daniels	50	49	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	3	1	16.1	15.5	0.58	15.4	17.0	-1.55
Terry Porter	31	31	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.30	4	3	1	17.4	15.0	2.35	15.1	16.7	-1.66
David Robinson	50	50	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.06	14	-7	21	15.3	16.5	-1.18	16.9	15.2	1.63
Tim Duncan	85	83	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	6	-5	16.0	13.2	2.80	16.0	17.4	-1.38
Malik Rose	45	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	10	-13	16.1	15.6	0.58	15.9	16.4	-0.50
Bruce Bowen	43	45	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	1	5	15.5	16.1	-0.64	16.8	15.5	1.33
Tony Parker	59	59	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	4	-1	15.0	17.4	-2.35	16.7	15.1	1.66
Charles Smith	35	35	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	7	-7	14.4	16.7	-2.32	16.9	15.7	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 115, HOU 122	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.6,0.55,0.68,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	93.8%
SAS 88, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.95,1,1	93.8%
HOU 95, LAC 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.3%