NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	76		Excitement	2.3 [1225]		MVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): +5.2%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.0 [1204]		LVP	Zendon Hamilton (DEN): -7.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	5	36%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	0.00	0.06	14	61%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Kenny Satterfield	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	3	12%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	53%	-0.01	3	-0.04	10	70%	-0.02
Mengke Bateer	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	0.00	-0.05	10	32%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Zendon Hamilton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.18	0.00	-0.10	10	33%	-0.06	3	-0.02	10	40%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	8	72%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	8	80%	0.08	3	-0.04	14	86%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	-0.03	5	64%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	100%	-0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	14	48%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	46%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	36.4	15.6	25.3	2.5	27.5	134.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.6%

MIA +8.0%

MIA +5.2%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.6	15.6	83.5	111.0	102.3
season	16.1	16.5		99.7	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		98.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.5	13.9	16.2	16.9	16.1
MIA	16.8	15.5	17.3	13.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Satterfield	15	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.20	-7	-18	11	18.1	15.7	2.41	12.0	16.2	-4.25
Carlos Arroyo	48	48	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	-19	13	15.0	17.2	-2.23	14.2	17.2	-2.98
Ryan Bowen	54	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-20	15	15.0	17.6	-2.55	14.9	16.6	-1.64
Zendon Hamilton	69	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	-13	1	15.3	18.5	-3.28	15.1	17.1	-2.00
Mengke Bateer	35	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-9	-7	18.7	14.4	4.32	15.9	15.4	0.46
Juwan Howard	56	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	-13	1	16.2	15.8	0.46	17.0	13.2	3.76
George McCloud	60	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	-10	-5	15.9	16.3	-0.41	17.1	12.8	4.24
Voshon Lenard	46	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.20	-23	-2	-21	16.7	15.4	1.25	16.4	14.8	1.60
Calbert Cheaney	72	73	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.35	-29	4	-33	16.2	15.6	0.54	15.2	17.1	-1.82

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	42	42	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.33	30	-5	35	16.1	15.2	0.89	16.9	15.3	1.58
Rod Strickland	48	47	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.16	21	4	17	17.1	13.9	3.15	16.7	15.4	1.29
Eddie Jones	66	65	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.10	17	8	9	16.4	13.4	3.02	16.3	15.4	0.94
Kendall Gill	44	44	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	13	-1	16.8	14.4	2.42	16.6	15.5	1.08
Brian Grant	52	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	12	1	17.5	13.1	4.45	16.6	15.2	1.46
Jim Jackson	58	58	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.18	14	11	3	14.6	17.4	-2.82	14.8	18.2	-3.43
Chris Gatling	31	30	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.09	7	18	-11	14.4	16.2	-1.78	15.5	16.3	-0.83
Anthony Carter	43	44	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	21	-17	13.9	17.1	-3.15	15.4	16.7	-1.29
Eddie House	14	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.20	7	18	-11	12.0	16.2	-4.25	18.1	15.7	2.41
Sean Marks	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	22	-19	11.3	16.2	-4.91	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Malik Allen	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	23	-21	11.8	16.1	-4.26	14.6	16.2	-1.63
Vladimir Stepania	36	35	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.14	-5	30	-35	15.7	15.5	0.12	15.3	16.5	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.89,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 74, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
SAC 96, NJN 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	97.3%
BKN 105, BOS 121	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%