NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	116		Excitement	10.6 [33]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +18.9%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	5.1 [325]		LVP	Juwan Howard (DEN): -28.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.19	0.12	0.09	0.02	21	64%	0.20	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0.13	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13	-0.03	0.16	-0.00	14	50%	0.21	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.01	9	65%	0.09	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	-0.05	18	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Danny Manning	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.04	-0.13	-0.01	7	44%	-0.11	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.02	-0.22	0.01	18	45%	-0.25	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	9	62%	0.04	0	0.00	8	100%	0.07
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.07	0.00	11	71%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	41%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	5	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Mengke Bateer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	10	30%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	10	20%	-0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.27,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.04	-0.22	0.00	14	57%	0.00	5	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.25,-0.29	-0.29	-0.07	-0.20	0.02	20	53%	-0.20	3	-0.09	17	82%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.0	2.5	29.0	15.8	26.4	2.4	34.8	0.2	9.2	147.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +60.2%

DEN -19.9%

DAL +1.4%

DAL +8.9%

DEN -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.8	15.6	113.7	106.8	102.3
season	14.8	16.1		109.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.0	14.5	14.5	18.3	14.9	15.2
DEN	16.6	14.3	16.1	16.0	16.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	79	79	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.18	17	-11	28	14.5	17.9	-3.41	16.6	13.1	3.48
Raef LaFrentz	45	49	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-1	8	15.9	14.7	1.19	17.4	14.3	3.07
Michael Finley	95	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.6	10.6	5.00	15.9	14.0	1.91
Dirk Nowitzki	87	87	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-5	16	15.3	14.9	0.34	16.2	13.6	2.57
Nick Van Exel	83	82	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	8	-10	15.6	13.7	1.83	15.2	18.3	-3.13
Wang Zhi-zhi	18	18	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	-2	10	11.9	15.9	-3.98	16.1	15.7	0.31
Eduardo Najera	58	57	0.06	0.45	-0.39	0.03	1	5	-4	14.4	16.3	-1.96	15.5	16.2	-0.76
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	4	3	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	5	-4	14.2	15.3	-1.02	15.3	15.8	-0.48
Danny Manning	12	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	13	-20	18.1	14.8	3.24	12.3	16.3	-3.99
Johnny Newman	29	30	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.09	-12	18	-30	16.7	14.6	2.09	13.3	16.8	-3.52

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	63	63	0.55	-1.05	1.59	-0.01	19	-25	44	14.4	17.9	-3.48	15.7	14.4	1.28
George McCloud	54	54	0.44	-0.94	1.39	-0.08	18	-24	42	14.4	17.3	-2.96	16.6	13.7	2.83
Calbert Cheaney	52	51	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.51	-13	7	-20	16.2	15.4	0.72	13.7	16.7	-2.96
James Posey	25	25	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.12	5	-11	16	14.6	16.2	-1.58	16.2	14.9	1.29
Antonio McDyess	49	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-3	0	16.4	15.2	1.17	15.0	15.4	-0.42
Mengke Bateer	6	6	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	-1	-4	16.2	15.8	0.39	12.7	15.4	-2.72
Donnell Harvey	53	53	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-12	18	15.5	16.2	-0.71	16.2	14.2	1.97
Juwan Howard	98	98	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.33	-10	4	-14	15.7	18.6	-2.95	15.0	21.2	-6.27
Voshon Lenard	37	35	-1.03	0.53	-1.56	-0.33	-24	18	-42	18.1	14.5	3.65	14.5	15.6	-1.17
Tim Hardaway	69	68	-1.11	0.61	-1.73	-0.61	-17	11	-28	16.9	13.5	3.38	14.9	15.9	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.4,0.48,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.68,0.73,0.46,0.61,0.29,0.22,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 106, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.63,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.27,0	90.0%
DEN 102, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.46,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.54,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.27,0	89.1%
MIN 107, LAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.42,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.33,0.74,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.32,0.08,0	88.2%