NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	6.2 [579]		MVP	David Robinson (SAS): +9.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	77		Comeback	1.2 [374]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -20.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.00	10	82%	0.18	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	13	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	24	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	20	52%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	10	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Loren Woods	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	8	41%	-0.07	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	9	22%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	12	57%	-0.01	7	-0.20	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	25.0	15.4	25.0	1.8	27.6	120.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.8%

MIN -3.4%

SAS +2.0%

SAS +5.6%

SAS +8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	17.4	16.1	15.6	97.7	90.6	102.3
season	15.8	15.0		104.3	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		103.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	18.1	17.4	18.8	17.4
MIN	15.2	15.3	15.2	19.1	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	77	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-3	14	17.1	19.7	-2.65	16.5	13.2	3.31
Bruce Bowen	72	71	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	3	2	17.2	17.9	-0.70	16.3	15.3	1.00
David Robinson	61	59	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.21	6	2	4	16.9	18.5	-1.63	16.0	16.4	-0.44
Steven Smith	50	48	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	1	6	16.3	18.7	-2.39	15.0	17.5	-2.52
Tony Parker	66	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	4	0	16.8	19.0	-2.23	15.5	18.1	-2.69
Terry Porter	21	21	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	4	0	19.0	16.8	2.23	18.1	15.5	2.69
Danny Ferry	18	18	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	3	2	17.6	17.3	0.25	16.3	16.1	0.20
Antonio Daniels	34	33	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.15	-1	9	-10	19.0	16.3	2.70	17.3	15.4	1.89
Malik Rose	36	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	9	-10	18.8	16.3	2.52	15.5	16.6	-1.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-8	8	17.0	16.1	0.90	7.5	17.6	-10.09
Gary Trent	8	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-5	2	16.2	16.1	0.15	18.7	17.2	1.46
Marc Jackson	37	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-6	4	15.7	16.4	-0.69	17.2	17.5	-0.24
William Avery	30	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-6	4	16.3	16.0	0.33	18.8	16.6	2.16
Rasho Nesterovic	48	49	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	-1	-6	15.6	16.8	-1.28	16.6	18.3	-1.70
Joe Smith	45	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-8	8	16.2	16.0	0.27	17.8	16.8	1.03
Anthony Peeler	45	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-4	0	16.6	15.5	1.07	18.5	16.1	2.43
Chauncey Billups	55	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-2	-4	16.0	16.3	-0.33	16.6	18.8	-2.16
Wally Szczerbiak	80	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-1	-6	16.2	14.6	1.61	17.3	17.6	-0.26
Kevin Garnett	75	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.28	-9	1	-10	16.1	15.9	0.25	17.0	19.5	-2.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 85, CHI 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.03,0,0	93.9%
OKC 117, BKN 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.31,0.22,0.23,0.09,0	93.8%
CHH 101, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.21,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.28,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.14,0.28,0.06,0.02,0	93.7%