NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	101		Excitement	6.7 [469]		MVP	Elden Campbell (CHH): +11.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	1.2 [479]		LVP	Baron Davis (CHH): -15.9%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	17	62%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Lee Nailon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	9	67%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	18	55%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
P.J. Brown	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	65%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Bryce Drew	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	56%	-0.00	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
George Lynch	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	13	54%	-0.03	6	-0.13	11	82%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	11	73%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.07	-0.02	22	61%	0.17	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	80%	0.03	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	9	50%	-0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	17	47%	-0.01	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.0	28.5	15.7	22.3	2.5	31.7	126.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -7.0%

CHH +22.4%

CHH +2.7%

CHH +27.4%

CHH +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIL	NBA	CHH	MIL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.8	15.6	111.0	103.4	102.3
season	15.9	15.3		102.2	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.6		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	16.5	14.3	18.0	16.0	16.2
MIL	17.0	15.7	14.8	16.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	84	82	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-1	11	16.4	13.3	3.12	16.2	11.0	5.24
Elden Campbell	57	59	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.15	12	-3	15	15.8	16.7	-0.86	15.8	15.9	-0.10
Lee Nailon	53	53	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	-1	11	16.2	16.1	0.06	16.3	15.2	1.12
P.J. Brown	63	62	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	7	-5	16.2	16.1	0.13	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Jamal Mashburn	84	81	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	7	-5	16.4	13.9	2.50	15.9	15.1	0.78
Robert Traylor	8	8	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.08	9	0	9	14.6	16.3	-1.69	17.4	15.7	1.70
Stacey Augmon	19	18	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	4	1	13.1	17.0	-3.87	12.5	16.7	-4.18
George Lynch	55	53	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	9	-9	16.5	15.6	0.87	15.8	15.9	-0.05
Jamaal Magloire	31	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	13	-17	17.4	15.5	1.80	16.2	15.6	0.61
Bryce Drew	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	10	-11	9.0	16.2	-7.24	14.0	15.9	-1.85

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	41	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-9	9	15.5	16.1	-0.64	16.7	15.7	0.93
Darvin Ham	17	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-4	-1	13.7	16.3	-2.63	16.4	16.1	0.30
Ervin Johnson	29	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	16.8	15.4	1.38	16.6	16.0	0.60
Ray Allen	79	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-8	7	15.8	15.8	0.04	16.2	16.1	0.07
Tim Thomas	51	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-4	-1	15.6	16.1	-0.48	15.7	16.8	-1.04
Michael Redd	35	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-1	-7	16.8	15.2	1.64	15.8	16.4	-0.55
Glenn Robinson	65	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-5	1	15.8	15.8	0.05	16.5	15.2	1.28
Anthony Mason	76	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-4	-1	16.2	13.7	2.51	16.0	16.9	-0.82
Rafer Alston	52	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	3	-15	15.2	16.6	-1.40	15.8	16.6	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.14,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.21,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.28,0.13,0.24,0.33,0.14,0.28,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, MIN 77	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.09,0	93.7%
ORL 102, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.17,0.23,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.2,0.07,0.02,0.01,0	93.1%
WAS 92, NOP 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.15,0.08,0.01,0,0	92.8%