NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	99		Excitement	5.6 [682]		MVP	Devean George (LAL): +13.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	1.5 [798]		LVP	Rick Fox (LAL): -7.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devean George	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.06	0.00	5	83%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	11	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.03	4	80%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	18	53%	0.02	0	0.00	17	59%	-0.05
Mark Madsen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Slava Medvedenko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	25	53%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	12	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	12	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	18	51%	0.05	3	-0.05	5	80%	-0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.02	9	75%	0.06	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	13	52%	-0.01	3	-0.05	7	71%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	28.0	18.8	24.2	2.7	33.0	136.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +22.0%

MIL -4.7%

LAL +11.0%

LAL +16.7%

LAL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIL	NBA	LAL	MIL	NBA
this game	17.8	15.3	15.6	115.1	101.1	102.3
season	15.3	15.3		106.9	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.4		105.1	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.9	17.5	19.6	18.4	17.8
MIL	15.4	16.0	14.0	15.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	52	54	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-2	14	17.8	17.8	-0.04	15.2	15.5	-0.23
Kobe Bryant	69	69	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	-1	12	18.5	14.8	3.71	15.2	15.8	-0.65
Devean George	41	41	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	2	6	18.8	16.9	1.87	16.2	14.6	1.67
Rick Fox	60	63	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.01	13	-3	16	17.0	19.6	-2.60	15.3	15.3	0.07
Robert Horry	65	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	8	-6	17.9	17.4	0.49	14.8	16.8	-1.92
Shaquille O'Neal	71	72	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	4	2	17.7	18.3	-0.64	15.4	14.9	0.48
Mark Madsen	6	6	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	7	-4	15.0	18.0	-3.01	14.7	15.4	-0.71
Slava Medvedenko	8	9	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	9	-8	21.7	17.4	4.35	16.8	15.2	1.61
Brian Shaw	18	20	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	10	-10	17.1	18.0	-0.94	16.5	15.0	1.58
Lindsey Hunter	40	40	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	16	-22	16.7	18.8	-2.06	14.5	16.0	-1.43

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	32	31	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-12	14	15.1	15.5	-0.42	17.4	18.0	-0.60
Ervin Johnson	27	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-11	12	16.2	15.0	1.23	18.2	17.6	0.56
Michael Redd	25	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	-5	0	16.4	14.9	1.44	18.3	17.6	0.63
Darvin Ham	6	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-6	2	12.3	15.5	-3.22	19.0	17.7	1.29
Sam Cassell	77	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-4	-6	2	15.3	15.7	-0.45	17.6	19.0	-1.37
Glenn Robinson	71	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-4	-2	15.1	16.1	-0.98	18.0	16.8	1.22
Ray Allen	69	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	-1	-8	15.0	16.4	-1.32	17.7	18.4	-0.70
Tim Thomas	56	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	2	-14	15.5	15.1	0.42	18.0	17.4	0.60
Anthony Mason	77	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	3	-16	15.4	14.7	0.69	17.5	19.7	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.3,0.52,0.42,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, GSW 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.6%
SEA 95, POR 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.4%
NOH 95, MIN 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.47,0.37,0.21,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0	92.4%