NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	96		Excitement	9.0 [111]		MVP	Ryan Bowen (DEN): +23.6%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	12.1 [57]		LVP	Damon Stoudamire (POR): -32.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ruben Patterson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.04	-0.00	18	74%	0.29	2	-0.11	6	67%	-0.01
Steve Kerr	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	82%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rick Brunson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.06	-0.03	9	48%	0.00	1	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Bonzi Wells	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	15	41%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.06	-0.17	-0.04	14	36%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.32	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.32	-0.01	-0.31	0.00	21	48%	-0.28	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.24	0.24	-0.00	0.24	-0.00	6	54%	0.28	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.05
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	-0.00	6	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	7	45%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.06	0.02	19	62%	0.13	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	11	58%	0.09	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	3	33%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.13	0.01	13	65%	0.03	7	-0.23	5	100%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.6	29.0	15.4	23.5	2.5	28.3	122.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +66.0%

DEN +18.0%

DEN +15.4%

POR -53.5%

DEN +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	17.0	14.0	15.6	103.2	104.3	102.3
season	16.0	16.1		105.0	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		105.9	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.7	18.0	15.2	18.7	17.0
DEN	12.1	16.3	13.0	14.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Brunson	10	11	0.10	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-4	7	16.7	17.0	-0.34	23.3	12.7	10.55
Bonzi Wells	24	25	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-4	7	17.2	16.9	0.22	15.5	13.4	2.12
Chris Dudley	2	2	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-1	1	20.5	16.9	3.58	29.5	13.6	15.87
Steve Kerr	21	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-2	3	18.9	16.4	2.46	18.4	12.7	5.70
Shawn Kemp	20	19	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	8	-17	16.2	17.2	-0.96	15.4	13.6	1.83
Ruben Patterson	70	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.42	1	-2	3	16.6	18.3	-1.73	14.2	13.2	1.00
Rasheed Wallace	75	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.54	5	-6	11	17.0	16.9	0.14	13.1	17.9	-4.86
Dale Davis	82	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-2	3	17.1	16.5	0.52	13.4	18.0	-4.57
Scottie Pippen	84	82	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.42	-4	3	-7	17.0	16.9	0.12	12.9	22.2	-9.32
Damon Stoudamire	77	77	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.52	-6	5	-11	16.9	17.7	-0.83	12.6	20.7	-8.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	29	30	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.48	11	-10	21	12.6	14.6	-2.06	17.4	16.8	0.54
Ryan Bowen	48	46	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-7	15	15.3	12.6	2.69	17.8	16.2	1.55
Nick Van Exel	81	83	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.41	8	-7	15	12.8	22.1	-9.32	17.0	16.8	0.22
Raef LaFrentz	82	84	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	-3	7	12.7	23.1	-10.35	17.2	15.6	1.60
Calbert Cheaney	62	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-5	11	12.5	16.9	-4.40	16.0	19.1	-3.05
Voshon Lenard	6	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	2	-3	24.8	13.2	11.61	14.6	17.1	-2.54
Avery Johnson	26	23	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.16	-7	8	-15	18.0	12.4	5.60	20.0	16.0	4.04
George McCloud	41	40	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.10	1	0	1	16.0	12.4	3.63	16.4	17.4	-1.01
Zendon Hamilton	56	56	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.05	-10	11	-21	14.6	12.9	1.70	16.1	18.3	-2.20
James Posey	34	35	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.08	-15	16	-31	13.3	14.4	-1.11	17.4	16.8	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.3,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.55,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 109, BKN 114	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.53,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.67,0.42,1	90.1%
SAC 99, CHI 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.34,0.61,0.79,0.33,0.42,1	88.6%
LAC 72, CHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,1	88.4%