NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	2.4 [1212]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +10.7%
Sacramento Kings	132		Comeback	1.0 [1254]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): -11.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	12	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.08	12	44%	0.06	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Kenny Satterfield	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	10	45%	0.02	3	-0.02	2	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	8	75%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	10	36%	-0.04	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	0.00	0.01	21	36%	-0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	11	77%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	0.00	0.05	12	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	15	72%	0.08	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	62%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.06	6	53%	0.01	2	-0.00	5	80%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Brent Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	3	25%	0.00	3	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	5	69%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	27.6	15.7	25.4	1.8	26.5	124.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +30.0%

SAC +13.2%

DEN -3.5%

SAC +10.1%

SAC +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	12.5	15.6	96.0	130.7	102.3
season	16.1	14.2		99.7	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		99.6	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.2	16.0	17.1	14.3	16.1
SAC	11.6	12.8	10.8	15.1	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Satterfield	17	17	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-32	28	15.2	16.3	-1.10	14.8	12.1	2.76
Voshon Lenard	11	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-33	30	15.5	16.2	-0.68	14.5	12.3	2.24
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	31	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.18	-10	-26	16	14.2	17.0	-2.84	12.4	12.6	-0.15
Avery Johnson	49	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.14	-9	-27	18	15.6	16.7	-1.13	13.3	11.8	1.46
Calbert Cheaney	62	63	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.31	-19	-17	-2	15.1	17.8	-2.69	13.7	10.6	3.04
Ryan Bowen	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	-27	18	16.7	15.8	0.92	13.1	12.1	1.05
Raef LaFrentz	63	65	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.27	-18	-18	0	16.6	15.4	1.27	11.8	13.8	-1.99
George McCloud	61	60	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.42	-24	-12	-12	16.2	16.1	0.08	12.5	12.6	-0.10
Zendon Hamilton	38	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.43	-26	-10	-16	17.4	15.4	2.01	11.6	13.1	-1.56
James Posey	77	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.49	-30	-6	-24	16.2	15.9	0.36	11.8	14.7	-2.92
Nick Van Exel	51	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.42	-28	-8	-20	17.5	14.8	2.70	11.5	13.6	-2.11

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	67	65	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.37	29	7	22	12.0	13.5	-1.47	17.3	14.0	3.31
Mike Bibby	69	67	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.43	31	5	26	11.2	15.4	-4.22	16.7	15.0	1.67
Vlade Divac	49	47	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.28	24	12	12	11.4	13.5	-2.09	17.2	15.2	2.01
Doug Christie	68	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.43	29	7	22	12.1	13.5	-1.38	17.0	14.4	2.61
Peja Stojakovic	63	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.36	25	11	14	11.1	14.9	-3.84	16.8	15.1	1.68
Hedo Turkoglu	34	34	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.28	15	21	-6	12.6	12.5	0.18	15.9	16.3	-0.41
Bobby Jackson	44	45	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.12	8	28	-20	14.4	11.1	3.34	14.7	17.3	-2.58
Scot Pollard	42	43	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.12	6	30	-24	14.7	10.9	3.79	15.1	16.9	-1.85
Gerald Wallace	27	28	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	31	-26	14.0	12.0	2.01	14.1	16.9	-2.79
Brent Price	21	21	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	32	-28	14.4	12.0	2.40	14.1	16.7	-2.54
Lawrence Funderburke	21	21	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	32	-28	14.4	12.0	2.40	14.1	16.7	-2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 76, SAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
CHI 74, BOS 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
ATL 86, TOR 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%