NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	7.1 [402]		MVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): +17.4%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	3.3 [338]		LVP	Terry Porter (SAS): -33.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	8	75%	0.17	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	13	61%	0.07	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.02
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	54%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Mark Bryant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	9	37%	-0.04	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	-0.01	5	31%	-0.15	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.15
Tim Duncan	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.16	0.01	-0.16	0.01	21	56%	-0.05	2	-0.11	10	70%	-0.01
Terry Porter	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.28,-0.34	-0.15	-0.21	-0.02	4	0%	-0.15	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.23,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.12	-0.01	13	61%	0.23	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Kendall Gill	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.01	22	49%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	10	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	13	41%	-0.04	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.5	15.4	25.5	2.4	36.2	133.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.2%

SAS -11.2%

SAS -5.7%

MIA +37.4%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.7	15.6	92.2	97.8	102.3
season	15.8	16.5		104.3	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.7		98.2	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.3	13.6	14.4	15.3	15.3
MIA	16.0	17.1	15.6	18.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	44	45	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-9	13	16.7	14.0	2.64	16.5	16.8	-0.36
Mark Bryant	11	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-6	7	13.5	15.6	-2.04	16.6	16.7	-0.12
Malik Rose	46	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-3	1	14.9	15.8	-0.95	14.9	18.4	-3.47
Stephen Jackson	50	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.08	-7	2	-9	14.9	15.8	-0.93	15.8	17.8	-1.99
Steven Smith	63	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-4	3	15.7	14.6	1.11	16.9	16.2	0.63
David Robinson	39	40	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-3	1	16.1	14.8	1.31	18.4	15.3	3.16
Tim Duncan	83	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	2	-9	15.6	12.0	3.61	16.9	12.2	4.73
Antonio Daniels	68	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.47	-2	-3	1	15.2	15.9	-0.70	16.9	15.8	1.12
Terry Porter	46	45	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	4	-13	14.0	16.7	-2.64	16.8	16.5	0.36

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	83	80	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.46	11	-6	17	16.7	16.6	0.10	15.5	13.9	1.61
Jim Jackson	52	52	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.36	9	-4	13	16.4	17.0	-0.62	14.2	16.9	-2.75
Brian Grant	68	68	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	2	1	17.0	15.5	1.54	15.3	15.4	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	56	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	-2	9	17.5	15.4	2.11	15.5	15.0	0.51
Rod Strickland	66	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	0	5	16.9	16.0	0.85	15.7	14.3	1.42
Vladimir Stepania	7	5	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	1	3	15.7	16.7	-1.03	18.8	15.1	3.67
LaPhonso Ellis	41	40	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	8	-11	15.1	18.0	-2.88	14.5	16.0	-1.50
Chris Gatling	12	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	8	-11	16.0	16.8	-0.77	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Kendall Gill	38	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	9	-13	17.0	16.4	0.62	16.9	14.2	2.75
Eddie House	27	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	9	-13	16.4	16.8	-0.37	14.4	15.8	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.77,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 105, VAN 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.78,0.87,1	91.3%
NJN 86, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.27,0.31,0.55,0.76,1,1	89.5%
LAC 91, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.59,0.35,0.22,0.32,0.45,0.85,0.72,1	89.5%