NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	8.8 [131]		MVP	Steven Smith (SAS): +65.6%
Boston Celtics	90		Comeback	1.6 [671]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -24.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.66	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.46,0.46,0.61,0.66	0.18	0.47	-0.01	8	106%	0.68	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.05
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	13	60%	0.09	4	-0.09	16	81%	-0.02
Mark Bryant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.06	0.00	6	38%	0.05	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1	-0.00	-0.10	0.00	6	55%	-0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.13	-0.06	-0.12	-0.06	8	48%	0.05	2	-0.18	7	71%	-0.00
Malik Rose	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	8	50%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Charles Smith	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	5	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.09	0.09	-0.00	12	33%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	46%	0.01	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.2,0.2,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.09	-0.01	22	60%	0.06	4	-0.12	8	62%	-0.06
Kedrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,-0.1,-0.21,-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	-0.00	21	48%	-0.21	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	2.5	30.3	15.4	43.8	2.7	28.4	153.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +54.4%

SAS +34.0%

BOS -28.5%

BOS -16.4%

SAS +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	17.5	14.4	15.6	103.3	98.9	102.3
season	15.8	15.0		104.3	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		98.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.1	14.7	18.0	19.1	17.5
BOS	12.6	16.6	13.3	15.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	43	45	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.50	8	-5	13	17.4	17.5	-0.09	15.6	13.2	2.43
Tim Duncan	88	88	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.47	6	-3	9	17.4	22.5	-5.15	14.4	12.3	2.11
Antonio Daniels	62	60	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-4	11	16.4	19.8	-3.42	15.0	13.1	1.94
Terry Porter	51	52	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	-2	7	17.7	17.2	0.51	15.5	12.9	2.54
Malik Rose	42	42	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	-4	11	17.6	17.4	0.20	13.6	15.0	-1.36
Mark Bryant	10	11	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.04	5	-2	7	17.5	17.5	0.04	14.2	14.4	-0.22
David Robinson	62	63	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.31	-8	11	-19	17.4	17.7	-0.31	14.5	14.0	0.49
Bruce Bowen	4	5	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	2	-1	24.5	17.1	7.36	12.6	14.5	-1.88
Tony Parker	51	53	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	8	-13	17.4	17.6	-0.22	13.2	15.9	-2.70
Charles Smith	37	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	0.09	-11	14	-25	18.7	16.6	2.05	12.6	15.6	-3.01

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	43	40	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-8	13	13.9	14.8	-0.97	18.1	16.9	1.23
Milt Palacio	1	0	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-3	3	0.0	14.5	-14.53	0.0	17.5	-17.47
Kedrick Brown	9	9	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-3	3	14.1	14.4	-0.29	14.3	17.8	-3.48
Mark Blount	25	24	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-3	3	16.0	13.7	2.30	15.0	18.4	-3.36
Walter McCarty	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-1	-1	8.5	14.5	-6.01	10.5	17.6	-7.13
Vitaly Potapenko	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-1	-1	12.9	14.5	-1.64	17.7	17.4	0.31
Joe Johnson	38	38	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	8	-19	14.0	14.6	-0.60	17.6	17.4	0.19
Paul Pierce	63	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.45	2	-5	7	13.5	16.4	-2.97	18.5	15.0	3.47
Antoine Walker	85	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-5	7	14.4	14.0	0.40	17.7	14.3	3.45
Tony Battie	58	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-2	1	13.9	15.3	-1.41	18.8	15.2	3.56
Kenny Anderson	73	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.51	0	-3	3	14.7	12.9	1.85	17.3	18.3	-1.04
Eric Williams	50	50	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.40	-8	5	-13	16.2	12.1	4.10	15.9	19.5	-3.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.23,0.32,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 100, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.26,0	91.8%
NYK 101, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.56,0.53,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.29,0.31,0.42,0	91.2%
SAS 88, HOU 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.09,0	91.2%