NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	8.4 [180]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +39.1%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	18.1 [139]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -25.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.14	0.01	15	73%	0.28	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.17	-0.01	0.19	-0.00	7	50%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	32%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	13	29%	-0.05	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.25	-0.09	-0.18	-0.02	29	49%	-0.05	6	-0.20	5	100%	0.05

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,0.39	0.39	-0.06	0.44	-0.01	19	50%	0.40	1	-0.01	16	75%	0.11
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.01	4	100%	0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	87%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	8	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	10	54%	0.02	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	9	53%	0.04	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	11	36%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	29.3	16.5	23.3	2.4	32.5	132.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +14.1%

DAL +37.3%

DEN -23.6%

DAL +18.4%

DAL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	16.0	14.3	15.6	98.9	100.0	102.3
season	16.1	14.8		99.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.6	16.6	14.0	17.0	16.0
DAL	12.7	13.4	15.4	15.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	39	39	0.04	-0.55	0.59	0.10	-2	1	-3	17.3	15.1	2.23	15.2	13.7	1.50
Ryan Bowen	63	65	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-1	1	16.9	14.3	2.58	13.8	15.4	-1.62
Voshon Lenard	63	62	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-2	3	15.1	17.8	-2.65	13.6	15.7	-2.10
Zendon Hamilton	14	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	2	-5	13.6	16.4	-2.87	13.3	14.5	-1.18
Scott Williams	13	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.02	-6	5	-11	19.8	15.4	4.34	13.5	14.4	-0.85
Raef LaFrentz	68	70	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.45	8	-9	17	15.8	16.6	-0.75	14.6	13.4	1.21
Nick Van Exel	86	85	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.53	7	-8	15	15.8	18.1	-2.31	14.2	14.7	-0.45
James Posey	89	90	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-4	7	15.8	20.0	-4.25	14.4	12.0	2.42
Calbert Cheaney	40	39	-1.12	0.62	-1.73	-0.74	-13	12	-25	15.8	16.1	-0.30	15.2	13.6	1.59

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	42	44	1.01	-0.51	1.53	0.52	17	-16	33	14.3	14.3	0.07	17.5	14.7	2.75
Adrian Griffin	43	41	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-10	21	14.1	14.4	-0.33	15.8	16.2	-0.34
Greg Buckner	54	56	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.54	-3	4	-7	13.4	15.5	-2.18	15.8	16.3	-0.49
Steve Nash	72	71	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.55	-6	7	-13	13.7	16.2	-2.48	15.6	17.3	-1.70
Juwan Howard	61	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	-6	13	13.6	15.5	-1.88	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Dirk Nowitzki	75	75	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.55	-14	15	-29	14.5	13.4	1.13	16.0	16.2	-0.23
Wang Zhi-zhi	32	31	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	-3	7	16.0	13.4	2.52	16.1	16.0	0.06
Johnny Newman	51	51	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.21	-6	7	-13	13.6	15.1	-1.44	14.9	17.3	-2.37
Tim Hardaway	45	45	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.28	-5	6	-11	16.6	12.2	4.38	17.1	15.0	2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.81,0.67,0.39,0.29,0.15,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.83,0.68,0.69,0.53,0.33,0.31,0.16,0.09,0.09,1	88.8%
CLE 94, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.82,0.66,0.81,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.42,1	87.9%
NYK 105, PHI 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.92,0.87,0.76,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.16,1	87.8%