NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	89		Excitement	5.7 [672]		MVP	Lee Nailon (CHH): +22.7%
Minnesota Timberwolves	94		Comeback	1.2 [1050]		LVP	David Wesley (CHH): -25.6%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lee Nailon	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.23	0.05	0.19	0.01	10	70%	0.28	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Bryce Drew	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	3	56%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Baron Davis	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.08	0.04	20	60%	-0.01	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26	-0.13	-0.13	-0.00	22	35%	-0.22	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.03	11	71%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	12	67%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	18	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.08
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.05	-0.02	17	39%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	11	32%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.6	26.4	15.8	20.3	2.4	33.9	125.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +3.0%

MIN +14.8%

MIN +30.6%

MIN +1.2%

MIN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIN	NBA	CHH	MIN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.8	15.6	96.7	104.4	102.3
season	15.9	15.0		102.2	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.6		103.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	15.4	17.3	15.5	15.2	15.8
MIN	13.3	17.0	15.1	18.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	21	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-1	-3	15.0	16.1	-1.07	14.6	16.1	-1.51
Jamaal Magloire	30	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-2	-1	15.8	15.9	-0.09	16.3	15.6	0.72
Stacey Augmon	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.13	-1	-4	3	15.7	15.9	-0.24	16.7	15.3	1.42
Robert Traylor	7	7	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	4	-13	19.1	15.6	3.59	14.0	16.0	-1.98
P.J. Brown	71	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-8	11	16.2	14.6	1.56	16.5	13.6	2.87
Lee Nailon	61	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-6	7	15.9	15.7	0.22	15.8	15.8	-0.03
Matt Bullard	24	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	2	-9	14.6	16.2	-1.63	14.7	16.2	-1.46
Elden Campbell	59	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.34	2	-7	9	15.8	15.9	-0.18	15.4	16.5	-1.11
Baron Davis	78	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-6	7	15.9	15.1	0.81	16.1	14.0	2.10
David Wesley	75	73	-0.48	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	3	-11	15.7	16.2	-0.43	15.4	17.5	-2.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	75	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-2	9	15.8	16.1	-0.37	16.0	14.9	1.08
Joe Smith	59	60	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-3	11	15.2	17.1	-1.90	15.7	16.1	-0.41
Wally Szczerbiak	72	73	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	-7	19	14.9	19.6	-4.74	15.9	15.7	0.18
Chauncey Billups	72	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	4	-3	16.0	15.2	0.75	15.6	16.8	-1.28
Kevin Garnett	72	74	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	3	-1	16.0	15.1	0.89	15.7	16.2	-0.49
Anthony Peeler	44	45	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.39	-7	12	-19	17.9	13.8	4.13	15.8	15.8	0.04
William Avery	18	19	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	1	3	15.2	16.0	-0.75	16.8	15.6	1.28
Gary Trent	23	25	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	4	-3	15.9	15.8	0.06	15.9	15.8	0.07
Sam Mitchell	10	9	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.02	1	4	-3	12.9	16.2	-3.29	13.9	16.0	-2.15
Loren Woods	5	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	9	-13	22.6	15.4	7.18	18.2	15.7	2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.76,0.71,0.83,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 87, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.87,0.75,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	94.1%
DET 85, CHH 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.89,0.96,1	94.1%
NOP 92, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.73,1	93.7%