NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	7.4 [347]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +34.4%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	1.2 [574]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -28.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.34	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.34	0.24	0.14	0.03	14	91%	0.38	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.11
Joel Przybilla	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	2	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Michael Redd	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	13	55%	-0.01	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Darvin Ham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	60%	-0.01	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	1	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.06
Anthony Mason	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16	-0.03	-0.13	0.00	7	52%	-0.13	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.03
Sam Cassell	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	17	43%	-0.10	4	-0.12	8	100%	0.05
Glenn Robinson	-0.28	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28	-0.12	-0.16	0.01	16	37%	-0.10	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.21	0.01	17	57%	0.28	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.06
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	5	43%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	13	53%	0.01	4	-0.14	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.3	27.6	16.5	26.3	1.7	35.1	135.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +63.5%

MIL -18.0%

MIA +4.9%

MIL -0.7%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.3	15.6	107.8	107.6	102.3
season	15.3	16.5		104.7	96.6
opponent	15.8	16.0		98.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.2	16.3	14.5	13.5	15.3
MIA	16.3	15.0	15.5	18.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	15	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-2	2	18.3	14.7	3.52	13.4	16.9	-3.47
Joel Przybilla	21	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	1	-4	15.8	15.2	0.62	16.3	16.3	0.04
Ervin Johnson	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	2	-6	17.0	14.5	2.50	18.6	15.2	3.36
Darvin Ham	24	25	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	8	-18	18.0	14.4	3.64	15.2	16.7	-1.46
Anthony Mason	78	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.45	6	-8	14	14.7	19.2	-4.52	16.4	16.0	0.35
Tim Thomas	54	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-1	0	15.3	15.4	-0.09	15.0	18.3	-3.33
Glenn Robinson	78	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-4	6	14.6	20.1	-5.48	16.5	14.7	1.88
Ray Allen	73	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.39	-1	-1	0	14.9	17.1	-2.20	16.6	14.7	1.88
Sam Cassell	77	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-3	4	14.9	17.8	-2.85	16.6	14.2	2.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	77	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-4	10	16.3	16.1	0.20	15.2	15.8	-0.56
Alonzo Mourning	69	66	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.36	4	-2	6	16.5	15.7	0.75	15.5	14.8	0.68
Brian Grant	54	55	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-7	16	15.8	17.0	-1.23	16.4	13.7	2.70
Anthony Carter	51	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	-1	4	15.8	16.9	-1.08	15.5	15.2	0.30
Jim Jackson	81	79	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.39	-4	6	-10	16.9	11.6	5.30	15.0	17.8	-2.83
LaPhonso Ellis	55	53	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.34	-3	5	-8	16.1	16.6	-0.58	14.9	16.0	-1.13
Rod Strickland	43	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.20	-1	3	-4	17.1	15.6	1.57	15.3	15.3	-0.00
Chris Gatling	23	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	15.5	16.6	-1.10	14.6	15.6	-1.03
Vladimir Stepania	7	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	6	-10	13.6	16.5	-2.96	15.4	15.3	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.89,0.95,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.71,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.89,0.77,0.82,1	94.4%
DET 103, SAC 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.95,0.94,1,1	94.3%
TOR 108, LAL 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.99,1	93.7%