NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	10.6 [32]		MVP	Brent Barry (SEA): +14.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	94		Comeback	10.3 [99]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -43.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	9	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Jim Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.10	0.14	-0.01	10	40%	0.22	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	9	72%	0.06	2	-0.07	11	64%	-0.09
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.02	-0.00	10	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.09	-0.01	9	62%	0.11	2	-0.18	6	83%	0.03
Eddie Jones	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	14	47%	-0.14	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Anthony Carter	-0.44	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44	-0.09	-0.35	-0.00	9	35%	-0.34	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.11	-0.02	9	64%	0.22	2	-0.08	10	90%	0.06
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Olumide Oyedeji	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	-0.00	18	54%	-0.02	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.07
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	7	28%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.00	11	43%	-0.15	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.04
Gary Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.28,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24	-0.24	-0.04	-0.17	0.03	28	43%	-0.19	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.1	1.7	26.7	15.8	29.2	2.7	37.2	1.8	18.9	161.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.3%

SEA -2.7%

MIA +30.1%

SEA -27.8%

MIA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SEA	NBA	MIA	SEA	NBA
this game	15.9	16.6	15.6	99.0	96.9	102.3
season	16.5	16.0		96.6	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	16.3	16.3	15.7	16.6	12.8	15.9
SEA	15.6	18.0	15.6	16.1	19.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	58	56	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.63	6	-2	8	15.1	17.0	-1.85	16.3	16.9	-0.58
Alonzo Mourning	73	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-6	16	17.2	12.1	5.17	17.0	15.0	2.00
Anthony Carter	62	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.42	6	-2	8	16.6	14.8	1.81	16.6	16.5	0.17
Rod Strickland	58	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	-3	10	14.7	17.6	-2.90	16.4	16.8	-0.45
Eddie Jones	85	83	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.36	-6	10	-16	16.0	15.1	0.87	16.5	16.9	-0.42
Chris Gatling	28	26	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	5	-6	14.8	16.3	-1.54	16.3	16.6	-0.30
Jim Jackson	60	58	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	7	-10	15.1	17.1	-1.92	16.1	17.2	-1.11
LaPhonso Ellis	61	61	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.38	-3	7	-10	17.0	14.1	2.98	16.6	16.6	-0.03

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	41	44	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.08	1	-5	6	15.5	17.4	-1.87	17.7	14.4	3.35
Predrag Drobnjak	10	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-5	6	16.7	16.6	0.15	15.9	15.9	-0.00
Shammond Williams	16	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-7	10	17.2	16.4	0.74	13.4	16.4	-2.99
Calvin Booth	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	1	-6	17.6	16.4	1.26	18.6	15.4	3.12
Art Long	23	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	1	-6	15.4	16.9	-1.48	15.2	16.1	-0.87
Olumide Oyedeji	25	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-1	-2	17.2	16.3	0.85	14.5	16.3	-1.83
Rashard Lewis	86	89	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-2	0	16.3	18.7	-2.44	16.2	12.7	3.55
Brent Barry	83	84	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.37	0	-4	4	16.7	15.5	1.25	15.9	15.9	-0.05
Gary Payton	86	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-7	10	16.4	17.9	-1.51	16.0	15.3	0.63
Vladimir Radmanovic	57	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.37	-1	-3	2	17.4	15.4	1.94	15.0	17.2	-2.20
Earl Watson	44	44	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	8	-20	16.7	16.5	0.25	15.6	16.1	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 105, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.69,0.54,0.43,0.17,0.46,0.25,0.16,0.22,0.42,0	89.9%
ORL 96, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.06,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.16,0.16,0	89.4%
BOS 116, MEM 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.3,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.67,0.45,0.28,0.2,0.16,0.46,0.36,0.1,0.03,0.01,0	89.2%