NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	89		Excitement	5.3 [751]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +19.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	1.4 [781]		LVP	Anthony Mason (MIL): -10.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	14	60%	0.07	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.04	0.06	-0.08	0.02	23	55%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.06
Chris Childs	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	13	62%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	47%	-0.01	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.05	-0.04	22	64%	0.22	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	3	117%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	16	68%	0.17	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	65%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	13	42%	0.02	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	32%	-0.10	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.5	24.2	18.8	23.3	3.3	31.5	125.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.6%

MIL +17.7%

MIL +5.0%

MIL +1.7%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	14.7	16.7	15.6	96.7	103.3	102.3
season	16.2	15.3		100.3	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.6		105.1	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.9	16.6	16.1	11.3	14.7
MIL	14.5	16.1	17.3	18.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy Murray	27	27	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.29	8	-14	22	11.3	16.0	-4.70	19.0	15.7	3.27
Dell Curry	10	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-2	-2	18.4	14.2	4.20	15.0	16.9	-1.85
Chris Childs	31	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-5	4	14.2	14.9	-0.64	18.1	15.9	2.16
Jerome Williams	39	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.34	5	-11	16	14.0	15.2	-1.18	18.5	15.2	3.31
Hakeem Olajuwon	58	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	3	-12	15.8	12.6	3.23	16.4	17.1	-0.78
Alvin Williams	64	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	1	-8	14.9	14.0	0.89	16.4	17.3	-0.91
Morris Peterson	61	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	4	-14	15.5	12.9	2.64	15.6	18.8	-3.24
Vince Carter	86	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-2	-2	14.3	19.8	-5.54	16.4	20.3	-3.93
Keon Clark	84	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	2	-10	14.4	16.9	-2.43	16.2	20.7	-4.54

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	40	38	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-5	16	16.7	16.6	0.17	14.5	14.7	-0.21
Anthony Mason	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	-1	8	16.6	17.1	-0.50	14.4	15.8	-1.36
Ray Allen	79	81	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	-1	8	15.9	21.3	-5.42	14.4	16.3	-1.84
Glenn Robinson	71	71	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	2	2	16.6	17.0	-0.39	14.7	14.4	0.29
Sam Cassell	77	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	2	2	16.8	15.9	0.86	14.9	13.2	1.70
Jason Caffey	8	8	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	2	2	13.2	17.0	-3.73	20.0	14.1	5.86
Michael Redd	25	24	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	7	-8	17.4	16.4	1.08	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Ervin Johnson	59	61	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.16	-3	9	-12	17.0	16.1	0.88	14.6	14.7	-0.09
Darvin Ham	26	26	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	9	-12	18.5	15.9	2.58	14.0	14.9	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.89,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 99, MEM 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIN 83, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
LAL 107, BOS 113	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.99,1,1	94.7%