NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	5.6 [684]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +16.5%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	1.4 [439]		LVP	Juwan Howard (DAL): -12.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16	0.18	0.02	0.04	19	74%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	11	57%	0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.04
Mike Bibby	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.06	-0.00	13	47%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.10	0.03	-0.04	9	41%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.03
Bobby Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	13	59%	0.09	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	10	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	54%	-0.01	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.02	-0.03	6	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.04	0.03	20	66%	0.15	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	12	67%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donnell Harvey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	12	35%	-0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	20	50%	-0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	10	50%	-0.06	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	24.3	16.4	23.4	2.5	32.4	122.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +27.1%

DAL -9.5%

SAC +10.4%

SAC +12.3%

SAC +9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.7	15.6	113.4	100.0	102.3
season	14.2	14.8		106.6	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.6	14.1	13.9	16.8	14.8
DAL	13.7	15.3	14.9	15.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	85	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-3	18	13.9	21.4	-7.55	15.1	12.1	2.98
Mike Bibby	84	86	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-3	18	14.8	14.9	-0.14	14.2	18.8	-4.67
Bobby Jackson	52	53	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.07	14	-2	16	14.7	14.9	-0.12	15.3	14.1	1.15
Scot Pollard	68	69	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	3	6	14.9	14.6	0.36	15.4	13.2	2.12
Hedo Turkoglu	54	54	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	1	10	14.9	14.7	0.27	14.8	14.7	0.14
Doug Christie	78	77	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.17	0	12	-12	15.6	11.7	3.88	14.4	16.1	-1.79
Gerald Wallace	1	2	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	10	-8	3.0	14.9	-11.93	9.5	14.8	-5.34
Vlade Divac	63	62	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	15.2	14.1	1.01	14.5	15.1	-0.64

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	18	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-11	10	14.3	14.8	-0.49	16.5	14.5	2.03
Eduardo Najera	12	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-9	6	14.8	14.7	0.11	11.3	15.3	-3.98
Donnell Harvey	23	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.14	2	-14	16	14.3	14.9	-0.62	12.3	15.6	-3.28
Shawn Bradley	27	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-6	0	14.1	15.0	-0.86	13.3	15.4	-2.04
Tim Hardaway	51	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-11	10	14.7	14.7	-0.02	16.3	13.3	2.95
Juwan Howard	55	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-13	14	15.2	14.1	1.10	17.0	11.9	5.16
Dirk Nowitzki	80	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-7	2	15.1	13.3	1.78	13.8	19.8	-6.00
Adrian Griffin	53	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.14	-18	6	-24	13.8	15.8	-1.97	14.1	15.6	-1.54
Michael Finley	88	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.14	-12	0	-12	14.8	14.3	0.48	15.3	10.1	5.17
Steve Nash	83	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.05	-17	5	-22	15.0	13.1	1.97	14.7	15.7	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.08,0.07,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 81, LAL 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.16,0.05,0.04,0	93.9%
SEA 114, SAC 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.02,0,0	93.6%
PHI 93, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.17,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.1,0.08,0	93.6%