NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	88		Excitement	7.6 [312]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +14.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	3.2 [826]		LVP	Dion Glover (ATL): -29.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cal Bowdler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	86%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	18	51%	0.04	2	-0.09	9	78%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	12	67%	0.07	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.03
Hanno Mottola	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.1	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	15	26%	-0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Emanual Davis	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	-0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29,-0.29	-0.10	-0.17	0.02	12	35%	-0.10	2	-0.19	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	-0.00	6	79%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.01	7	71%	0.15	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	16	60%	0.10	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	15	56%	0.06	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	10	43%	-0.03	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	3	37%	-0.03	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.02	20	39%	-0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.7	25.1	15.3	22.6	1.7	37.3	125.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.4%

ATL -11.6%

MIL +10.4%

MIL +31.0%

MIL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.3	14.4	15.6	91.7	96.9	102.3
season	15.5	15.3		99.7	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.2		105.1	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	17.3	18.1	11.8	15.3
MIL	14.1	13.4	14.0	15.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DerMarr Johnson	14	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-7	7	16.5	15.1	1.37	13.9	14.5	-0.52
Jacque Vaughn	46	50	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.23	6	-13	19	16.5	14.3	2.16	13.7	15.1	-1.40
Toni Kukoc	46	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-10	13	16.3	14.4	1.95	14.1	14.6	-0.55
Hanno Mottola	22	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-7	7	14.7	15.5	-0.79	17.4	13.4	4.01
Cal Bowdler	54	59	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.27	3	-10	13	15.2	15.5	-0.30	13.8	15.2	-1.31
Nazr Mohammed	34	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	4	-15	16.2	14.9	1.31	13.9	14.6	-0.68
Dion Glover	57	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	1	-9	15.0	15.8	-0.73	14.9	13.7	1.23
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	-1	-5	15.2	15.9	-0.70	14.1	15.9	-1.88
Emanual Davis	50	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	6	-19	14.3	16.5	-2.16	15.1	13.7	1.40
Jason Terry	75	74	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.24	-9	2	-11	14.7	17.5	-2.80	14.2	14.7	-0.51

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	85	84	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.26	12	-5	17	14.2	15.5	-1.26	14.9	18.1	-3.14
Sam Cassell	60	62	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.08	18	-11	29	14.8	13.6	1.20	15.2	15.6	-0.35
Ervin Johnson	59	59	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-7	21	14.1	14.8	-0.67	13.9	17.6	-3.68
Ray Allen	81	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	1	5	14.2	15.3	-1.12	15.1	16.5	-1.34
Glenn Robinson	82	81	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.17	9	-2	11	14.0	16.4	-2.47	15.0	16.9	-1.82
Tim Thomas	38	37	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.20	-5	12	-17	16.0	13.3	2.71	16.4	14.7	1.70
Michael Redd	25	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	9	-11	15.4	14.0	1.39	17.4	14.7	2.69
Jason Caffey	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	9	-11	13.2	14.5	-1.30	19.2	14.9	4.29
Rafer Alston	33	31	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.17	-9	16	-25	15.5	13.8	1.68	16.5	14.8	1.65
Mark Pope	17	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	13	-19	10.6	15.1	-4.50	16.1	15.2	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 99, SAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.96,1	93.0%
MEM 91, PHX 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	92.9%
OKC 108, LAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.63,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.97,1	92.9%