NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	96		Excitement	6.4 [522]		MVP	Baron Davis (CHH): +29.5%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	2.5 [627]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (CHH): -9.8%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29	0.13	0.13	-0.03	13	77%	0.31	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Elden Campbell	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	14	62%	0.14	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
David Wesley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	16	55%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.06
Matt Bullard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.03	-0.06	3	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Bryce Drew	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	6	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	15	36%	-0.03	3	-0.07	3	67%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.12	-0.01	15	67%	0.25	0	0.00	3	100%	0.11
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	53%	0.11	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Ernest Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tang Hamilton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	10	48%	-0.02	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	15	34%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	0.01	0.01	14	47%	-0.03	2	-0.05	12	42%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.0	29.5	17.8	27.3	2.5	28.3	135.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +34.1%

CHH +1.8%

MIA -5.8%

CHH +4.7%

CHH +15.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	MIA	NBA	CHH	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	15.5	15.6	110.3	96.7	102.3
season	15.9	16.5		102.2	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.6		98.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	15.3	17.8	17.4	18.2	17.1
MIA	14.7	14.3	16.9	16.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	68	71	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-5	19	16.8	18.3	-1.54	15.8	14.3	1.44
David Wesley	79	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-3	15	17.2	16.4	0.81	15.5	14.6	0.91
Elden Campbell	58	59	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	-4	17	17.9	15.6	2.34	15.7	14.9	0.84
Baron Davis	74	75	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	2	5	16.9	18.2	-1.31	15.7	14.3	1.43
Matt Bullard	17	20	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	1	7	18.4	16.8	1.61	15.4	15.5	-0.07
P.J. Brown	57	58	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	1	7	16.2	18.8	-2.62	15.8	14.9	0.90
Bryce Drew	9	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	10	-11	19.2	16.9	2.35	13.1	15.7	-2.65
Jamaal Magloire	27	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	11	-13	15.4	17.9	-2.42	15.7	15.3	0.43
Robert Traylor	19	20	-0.10	0.59	-0.69	0.08	-6	15	-21	18.4	16.7	1.67	13.6	16.0	-2.39
Lee Nailon	27	27	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.00	-8	17	-25	17.7	16.8	0.91	14.4	15.9	-1.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	78	75	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	16.0	11.7	4.37	17.5	14.8	2.65
Ernest Brown	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	0.0	15.6	-15.63	24.0	17.0	6.97
Tang Hamilton	2	1	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.10	2	-11	13	0.5	15.8	-15.30	24.0	17.0	6.97
Sam Mack	24	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-10	11	11.7	16.8	-5.05	18.0	16.8	1.10
Anthony Carter	67	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-3	-3	16.1	13.7	2.42	16.3	19.4	-3.07
LaPhonso Ellis	59	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-2	-5	16.6	13.4	3.20	17.1	17.1	-0.00
Vladimir Stepania	85	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.19	-10	1	-11	15.7	11.8	3.87	16.9	20.0	-3.06
Eddie House	77	74	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.17	-15	6	-21	15.5	15.2	0.35	17.2	16.8	0.32
Chris Gatling	57	55	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.22	-14	5	-19	14.8	16.7	-1.91	17.2	17.0	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.34,0.48,0.42,0.26,0.34,0.13,0.03,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 99, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.4,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.04,0	93.2%
CLE 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	93.0%
LAL 115, NYK 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.31,0.38,0.32,0.14,0.2,0.1,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	92.9%