NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	108		Excitement	6.7 [465]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +23.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	114		Comeback	1.9 [315]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -24.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	2	140%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	8	68%	0.06	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	14	60%	0.05	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Tony Parker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	46%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	7	70%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Terry Porter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	0.01	-0.06	0.03	7	53%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.24	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.13	-0.06	18	44%	-0.11	4	-0.13	14	71%	-0.04

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.09	-0.07	15	65%	0.28	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.05	0.01	7	100%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.03	0.02	7	92%	0.18	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.14,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	19	54%	0.07	4	-0.08	8	75%	-0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	10	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	61.1	1.6	27.3	15.7	28.1	2.5	37.4	173.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +63.6%

SAS -17.5%

SEA +0.7%

SEA +6.2%

SAS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.0	16.2	15.6	121.3	126.7	102.3
season	15.8	16.0		104.3	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		103.9	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	17.5	18.1	13.6	16.0
SEA	16.8	14.5	17.0	16.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	49	49	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-7	8	16.7	15.1	1.56	17.1	15.0	2.05
David Robinson	49	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-6	6	16.8	15.1	1.66	16.6	15.7	0.89
Danny Ferry	27	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-3	0	16.3	15.9	0.36	14.8	16.7	-1.93
Tony Parker	13	14	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-1	-4	14.9	16.2	-1.27	14.0	16.6	-2.57
Antonio Daniels	76	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-5	4	16.2	14.9	1.27	16.6	14.0	2.57
Malik Rose	41	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-2	-2	15.2	16.7	-1.47	15.5	16.8	-1.29
Tim Duncan	84	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-4	2	16.0	16.6	-0.62	16.4	12.4	3.99
Steven Smith	62	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	2	-10	16.2	15.7	0.49	16.6	15.2	1.43
Terry Porter	44	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	2	-10	14.8	17.2	-2.31	15.1	17.2	-2.07

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	62	59	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-6	18	17.1	14.2	2.89	16.2	15.6	0.67
Desmond Mason	53	52	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	-2	10	15.2	17.5	-2.24	15.2	17.1	-1.92
Rashard Lewis	80	78	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	5	-4	16.6	12.4	4.24	15.7	18.0	-2.27
Brent Barry	75	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	3	0	16.1	16.7	-0.68	16.2	14.9	1.38
Gary Payton	77	75	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.40	-3	9	-12	17.0	11.1	5.95	15.6	18.1	-2.53
Vladimir Radmanovic	35	36	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.02	9	-3	12	15.1	16.9	-1.77	15.9	16.1	-0.11
Earl Watson	8	8	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.09	10	-4	14	11.7	16.6	-4.85	20.0	15.6	4.38
Calvin Booth	25	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	8	-10	16.7	16.0	0.71	18.2	15.1	3.03
Art Long	16	17	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	9	-12	14.4	16.6	-2.18	16.0	16.0	-0.01
Jerome James	19	20	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	11	-16	15.5	16.4	-0.88	14.9	16.3	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.93,0.96,1,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
		94.0%
NYK 87, SEA 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.88,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
LAC 98, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.67,0.86,0.73,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.99,1,0.98,1,1	93.8%