NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	69		Excitement	5.9 [604]		MVP	Dana Barros (DET): +2.0%
Detroit Pistons	81		Comeback	1.5 [974]		LVP	Dion Glover (ATL): -19.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	10	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	-0.00	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	17	45%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	12	25%	-0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.16	-0.05	-0.04	12	27%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Maloney	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.05	0.00	16	34%	-0.12	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	9	44%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	6	44%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	20	62%	0.13	9	-0.19	5	80%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	-0.04	16	38%	-0.04	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	8	39%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	-0.02	-0.04	5	0%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	13	27%	-0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.6	27.2	15.7	24.3	2.5	27.5	124.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +38.1%

DET +10.0%

DET +6.1%

ATL -5.9%

DET +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DET	NBA	ATL	DET	NBA
this game	14.2	14.2	15.5	67.6	80.2	100.9
season	15.4	14.3		96.0	97.9
opponent	15.4	15.1		99.6	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	12.6	13.6	16.8	14.1	14.2
DET	14.1	13.6	13.9	15.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alan Henderson	28	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-15	18	15.0	13.8	1.16	12.7	14.8	-2.03
DerMarr Johnson	38	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-11	10	15.4	13.4	1.93	13.5	14.7	-1.15
Cal Bowdler	22	22	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.06	-5	-7	2	16.4	13.5	2.81	14.8	14.1	0.71
Matt Maloney	43	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-9	6	15.4	13.3	2.14	14.3	14.2	0.15
Nazr Mohammed	76	75	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-7	2	13.6	15.8	-2.27	14.0	14.9	-0.95
Hanno Mottola	37	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-5	-2	13.6	14.4	-0.80	14.6	14.0	0.62
Lorenzen Wright	41	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	-2	-8	13.9	14.3	-0.38	15.1	13.7	1.36
Brevin Knight	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-4	-4	13.2	16.8	-3.61	13.9	15.2	-1.26
Jason Terry	77	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-2	-8	13.7	15.4	-1.70	14.0	15.0	-0.99
Dion Glover	73	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	2	-16	14.2	14.0	0.22	15.2	12.1	3.11

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	86	87	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	-1	14	14.4	13.1	1.27	14.1	14.3	-0.21
Mikki Moore	64	62	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.15	11	1	10	13.1	16.1	-2.98	15.6	11.9	3.63
Jerry Stackhouse	85	86	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.11	12	0	12	13.9	15.8	-1.89	14.1	14.2	-0.11
Corliss Williamson	71	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	3	6	14.5	13.6	0.83	13.9	14.7	-0.77
Chucky Atkins	66	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	0	12	14.0	14.7	-0.67	13.1	16.3	-3.20
Dana Barros	42	42	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	7	-2	14.4	14.1	0.24	12.9	15.0	-2.17
Mateen Cleaves	35	35	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	12	-12	14.7	14.0	0.67	16.3	13.1	3.20
Joe Smith	43	46	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	13	-14	15.7	13.1	2.66	12.7	15.3	-2.62
Jud Buechler	13	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	13	-14	13.5	14.3	-0.87	17.7	13.6	4.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 69, IND 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
LAL 70, CLE 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.78,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
PHX 106, SAS 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.9%