NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	79		Excitement	8.4 [154]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +19.1%
Charlotte Hornets	80		Comeback	25.8 [66]		LVP	Milt Palacio (BOS): -26.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.19	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.19	0.06	0.12	-0.01	19	57%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.06
Eric Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	9	39%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	89%	0.21	4	-0.18	4	100%	0.03
Walter McCarty	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17	-0.18	-0.00	-0.01	19	27%	-0.15	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.06
Bryant Stith	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.26,-0.26	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	10	18%	-0.15	1	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Milt Palacio	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.27	0.00	-0.27	0.00	7	65%	-0.21	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.11	0.11	-0.07	0.19	0.00	11	42%	0.18	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	8	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.06	0.06	-0.08	0.12	-0.01	8	48%	0.10	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	20	49%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.04
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.28,-0.33,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.20	-0.03	-0.02	15	22%	-0.18	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	31.3	15.4	22.4	1.8	33.1	131.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +58.4%

BOS -29.3%

CHH +12.6%

CHH +11.0%

BOS -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHH	NBA	BOS	CHH	NBA
this game	15.3	15.3	15.5	84.0	85.1	100.9
season	15.1	15.8		99.7	99.7
opponent	15.6	15.4		97.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.0	14.2	17.2	17.6	15.3
CHH	14.7	14.6	14.8	17.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	60	57	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.19	10	-11	21	15.4	15.2	0.16	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Tony Battie	15	14	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.01	1	-2	3	15.3	15.3	-0.01	14.6	15.4	-0.85
Walter McCarty	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	0	-1	0.0	15.3	-15.34	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Mark Blount	35	37	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.13	-9	8	-17	15.2	15.4	-0.22	16.1	14.8	1.38
Paul Pierce	74	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.14	0	-1	1	15.2	15.7	-0.52	16.2	11.4	4.77
Bryant Stith	64	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	2	-5	15.8	14.4	1.43	14.7	16.6	-1.81
Randy Brown	42	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	9	-19	14.8	15.8	-1.05	15.7	14.9	0.82
Milt Palacio	53	49	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.62	7	-8	15	15.7	14.9	0.78	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Eric Williams	49	47	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.71	3	-4	7	15.0	15.7	-0.63	14.4	16.2	-1.79
Antoine Walker	78	78	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.58	-3	2	-5	15.4	15.2	0.11	15.3	15.3	-0.02

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wesley	75	75	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-12	25	14.7	17.6	-2.86	15.5	14.5	1.02
Baron Davis	73	73	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.51	8	-7	15	14.6	17.8	-3.23	15.8	13.8	1.97
Jamal Mashburn	77	77	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.41	8	-7	15	14.0	21.1	-7.03	15.1	16.5	-1.38
Elden Campbell	58	56	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-12	25	16.0	14.1	1.88	15.6	15.0	0.62
P.J. Brown	70	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.48	3	-2	5	14.3	18.2	-3.91	15.5	14.8	0.74
Eddie Robinson	32	30	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.45	-13	14	-27	18.2	13.8	4.38	15.3	15.3	-0.01
Otis Thorpe	24	25	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	3	-5	18.2	14.3	3.91	14.8	15.5	-0.74
Hersey Hawkins	5	6	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	7	-13	22.0	14.9	7.08	16.0	15.3	0.70
Eldridge Recasner	21	21	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.04	-7	8	-15	17.8	14.6	3.23	13.8	15.8	-1.97
Jamaal Magloire	35	38	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.10	-12	13	-25	14.5	15.7	-1.20	15.0	15.6	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.57,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.27,0.07,0.15,0.24,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.19,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.43,0.42,1	89.6%
DET 110, ATL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.54,0.25,0.15,0.45,0.57,1	89.2%
CHI 105, MIN 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.58,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.73,1	88.9%