NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	93		Excitement	5.9 [621]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +22.8%
Atlanta Hawks	104		Comeback	2.4 [263]		LVP	Toni Kukoc (ATL): -16.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	19	57%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Sam Perkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	11	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jeff Foster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	11	64%	0.03	4	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	16	44%	-0.03	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.10	0.06	20	68%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.01	-0.01	8	87%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	0.00	5	83%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	13	62%	0.15	4	-0.11	3	67%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	8	37%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.04	0.04	15	32%	-0.14	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.6	26.2	15.4	22.5	2.4	28.6	119.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +27.9%

IND -5.3%

ATL +13.3%

ATL +9.6%

ATL +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ATL	NBA	IND	ATL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.6	15.5	102.2	115.6	100.9
season	15.9	15.4		99.3	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		101.6	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.3	15.9	16.9	15.9	16.2
ATL	15.7	14.1	17.4	15.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Bender	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	11.0	16.3	-5.34	10.5	15.7	-5.22
Sam Perkins	49	50	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.16	4	-15	19	16.0	16.5	-0.43	16.1	14.9	1.17
Jeff Foster	7	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-8	5	16.6	16.2	0.38	13.6	15.8	-2.20
Derrick McKey	43	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-16	21	15.9	16.5	-0.68	16.1	15.1	0.99
Tyus Edney	50	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-8	5	15.5	17.1	-1.60	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Al Harrington	45	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	3	-17	16.3	16.2	0.09	15.2	16.0	-0.77
Jalen Rose	79	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.20	-7	-4	-3	16.1	17.2	-1.09	15.5	16.0	-0.45
Austin Croshere	52	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.15	-9	-2	-7	16.4	15.9	0.52	15.5	15.8	-0.30
Jermaine O'Neal	51	50	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.04	-13	2	-15	17.1	15.1	2.00	15.0	16.4	-1.39
Reggie Miller	77	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.06	-15	4	-19	16.5	14.6	1.86	16.4	11.5	4.86

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	83	83	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.17	12	-1	13	15.4	18.1	-2.76	16.4	14.5	1.89
Cal Bowdler	35	37	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	0	11	15.7	15.5	0.14	14.8	17.2	-2.37
Brevin Knight	49	51	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.06	17	-6	23	15.7	15.4	0.30	17.3	14.9	2.35
DerMarr Johnson	35	35	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	3	5	13.7	16.8	-3.04	16.7	15.9	0.76
Nazr Mohammed	42	42	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	0	11	16.8	14.6	2.18	16.0	16.4	-0.36
Lorenzen Wright	37	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	9	-7	14.3	16.5	-2.26	17.3	15.5	1.77
Matt Maloney	37	36	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.25	-5	16	-21	15.9	15.4	0.50	15.2	16.9	-1.65
Toni Kukoc	66	68	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	10	-9	16.6	12.9	3.72	15.5	18.3	-2.73
Alan Henderson	48	49	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.06	2	9	-7	16.2	15.0	1.21	16.8	15.5	1.34
Hanno Mottola	18	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.05	-4	15	-19	13.9	16.0	-2.07	15.7	16.3	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.58,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.83,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 98, HOU 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.88,0.95,1,1,1,1	93.1%
DAL 108, PHX 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.46,0.48,0.65,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.0%
DAL 80, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	92.7%