NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	98		Excitement	6.4 [511]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +20.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	105		Comeback	17.7 [244]		LVP	Jason Terry (ATL): -16.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	19	63%	0.10	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.05
Cal Bowdler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	69%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hanno Mottola	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	15	53%	0.02	3	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.01	6	71%	0.06	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	11	45%	-0.07	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.08	0.03	11	43%	-0.10	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.09	0.02	13	79%	0.26	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.10	-0.00	11	61%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	-0.00	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	18	39%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	20	51%	0.06	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	9	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	1.8	29.3	15.4	26.2	1.8	27.0	123.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.4%

MIL +0.1%

ATL -5.4%

MIL +23.9%

ATL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.0	15.5	108.9	114.1	100.9
season	15.4	14.9		96.0	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.1		102.3	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	16.8	15.6	20.6	16.6
MIL	13.8	14.5	15.7	16.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	12	11	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-11	15	13.7	17.1	-3.31	12.5	15.4	-2.84
DerMarr Johnson	9	8	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-8	9	15.0	16.8	-1.80	14.2	15.1	-0.87
Hanno Mottola	23	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.05	-3	-4	1	15.5	17.0	-1.48	15.2	15.0	0.21
Matt Maloney	35	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-4	1	17.3	16.2	1.13	15.8	14.5	1.30
Cal Bowdler	36	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-3	-1	16.5	16.7	-0.20	15.5	14.7	0.73
Dion Glover	17	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	3	-13	19.6	15.9	3.73	16.4	14.7	1.80
Brevin Knight	55	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-3	-1	16.2	17.3	-1.13	14.5	15.8	-1.30
Jason Terry	79	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-5	3	16.2	20.0	-3.85	14.7	17.0	-2.31
Nazr Mohammed	42	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.18	-7	0	-7	17.5	15.8	1.74	15.3	14.8	0.49
Toni Kukoc	75	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.37	-3	-4	1	16.6	16.6	0.03	15.1	14.6	0.47
Alan Henderson	67	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-3	-1	17.0	15.5	1.48	15.0	15.2	-0.21

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	59	56	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.36	14	-7	21	15.3	14.7	0.59	17.7	14.9	2.75
Ervin Johnson	48	47	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.27	17	-10	27	16.1	13.9	2.17	18.3	14.8	3.42
Ray Allen	82	81	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-2	11	15.2	13.9	1.28	16.5	17.9	-1.41
Glenn Robinson	66	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	5	-3	14.7	15.8	-1.12	16.1	18.1	-2.02
Lindsey Hunter	39	37	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-5	17	15.7	14.6	1.13	18.5	15.3	3.26
Sam Cassell	74	73	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	5	-3	14.7	16.3	-1.53	16.5	17.0	-0.47
Scott Williams	26	25	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	4	-1	13.5	15.7	-2.15	15.5	17.1	-1.58
Darvin Ham	31	30	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.04	-8	15	-23	13.7	15.7	-2.06	13.4	18.2	-4.78
Jason Caffey	35	36	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.02	-16	23	-39	15.8	14.6	1.22	15.9	17.1	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.3,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 88, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.17,0.27,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.69,0.93,0.9,0.98,1	93.1%
CHA 99, MIL 108	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.23,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.68,0.79,0.94,0.98,1	92.1%
IND 111, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.32,0.47,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.93,0.97,1,1	91.9%