NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	81		Excitement	2.5 [1193]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +8.7%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	1.0 [1249]		LVP	Fred Hoiberg (CHI): -7.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	10	63%	0.07	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	10	54%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Dalibor Bagaric	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.J. Guyton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	9	65%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Dragan Tarlac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.00	4	100%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	9	59%	-0.00	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Corey Benjamin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.00	-0.05	5	17%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Marcus Fizer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	8	45%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	6	21%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	19	58%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	90%	0.07	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.04	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	11	59%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	68%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Don MacLean	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.09	4	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	0.00	0.05	3	83%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	4	33%	-0.02	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	29.6	17.3	23.4	1.7	26.9	126.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +32.0%

MIA +6.9%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +7.9%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	18.4	13.9	15.5	92.0	119.8	100.9
season	16.4	16.3		95.2	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.1		96.9	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	18.9	17.9	18.9	17.7	18.4
MIA	12.2	15.6	13.8	14.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dalibor Bagaric	17	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-26	24	17.9	18.5	-0.58	14.1	13.9	0.19
A.J. Guyton	22	23	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-27	26	17.7	18.6	-0.83	14.3	13.7	0.60
Corey Benjamin	29	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.13	-7	-21	14	17.6	18.7	-1.09	13.6	14.0	-0.45
Dragan Tarlac	40	42	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	-19	10	17.4	19.1	-1.70	14.5	13.3	1.20
Jamal Crawford	50	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	-12	-4	18.1	18.7	-0.63	14.4	13.3	1.02
Metta World Peace	49	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.18	-18	-10	-8	18.8	17.8	0.91	14.1	13.6	0.46
Marcus Fizer	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	-11	-6	18.3	18.4	-0.03	13.5	14.8	-1.25
Brad Miller	51	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.22	-21	-7	-14	19.0	17.5	1.49	14.0	13.8	0.19
Ron Mercer	58	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.26	-23	-5	-18	18.7	17.7	0.94	14.0	13.8	0.15
Fred Hoiberg	60	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.29	-26	-2	-24	18.7	17.5	1.25	13.1	15.6	-2.42

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	49	50	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.31	26	2	24	14.3	13.4	0.97	18.9	17.7	1.22
Tim Hardaway	44	44	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.32	26	2	24	13.9	13.9	-0.07	19.3	17.4	1.84
Anthony Mason	68	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.19	21	7	14	13.8	14.3	-0.54	18.9	16.8	2.05
Dan Majerle	45	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.29	21	7	14	13.6	14.2	-0.60	18.8	17.9	0.96
Eddie House	40	40	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.09	14	14	0	14.2	13.6	0.58	17.6	19.0	-1.43
Bruce Bowen	54	51	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.23	17	11	6	13.9	13.9	0.06	19.1	17.3	1.77
A.C. Green	33	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	28	-28	14.4	13.6	0.82	19.0	18.0	0.97
Cedric Ceballos	43	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	24	-20	13.9	13.9	-0.03	17.6	18.9	-1.29
Anthony Carter	34	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	31	-34	14.3	13.6	0.67	17.5	18.8	-1.29
Duane Causwell	17	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	24	-20	13.8	13.9	-0.10	16.6	18.7	-2.11
Ricky Davis	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	23	-18	12.4	14.2	-1.74	16.0	18.8	-2.80
Don MacLean	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	23	-18	12.4	14.2	-1.74	16.0	18.8	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, DET 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
CLE 100, DEN 122	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
NOP 93, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.57,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%