NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	96		Excitement	4.5 [895]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (WAS): +15.4%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	2.1 [414]		LVP	Mateen Cleaves (DET): -10.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.03	0.04	27	60%	0.06	3	-0.06	9	56%	-0.02
Billy Owens	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Mikki Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	14	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.01	15	37%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	8	40%	-0.04	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.02	0.00	23	71%	0.21	4	-0.06	10	90%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	9	75%	0.15	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Laron Profit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	2	117%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Loy Vaught	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	58%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
David Vanterpool	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	13	47%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Mike Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	40%	-0.03	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.3	29.7	15.7	27.2	2.3	32.6	130.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +42.2%

WAS +13.4%

WAS +13.0%

DET -18.3%

DET -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	14.3	14.8	15.5	97.0	104.0	100.9
season	14.3	15.2		97.9	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.5	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	16.4	13.6	11.8	14.3
WAS	14.8	11.3	17.7	15.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	34	34	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-9	11	14.0	14.4	-0.34	15.8	14.3	1.46
Michael Curry	33	33	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.08	2	-9	11	15.3	13.7	1.62	17.0	13.7	3.29
Mikki Moore	11	12	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	1	-9	20.3	13.5	6.77	7.9	15.8	-7.88
Chucky Atkins	65	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-7	7	14.0	14.6	-0.60	15.9	12.6	3.24
Jerry Stackhouse	91	91	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-8	9	13.6	21.4	-7.75	15.4	8.2	7.17
Mateen Cleaves	50	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-3	-1	13.0	15.5	-2.49	14.1	15.5	-1.38
Billy Owens	47	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	5	-17	14.9	13.7	1.22	13.0	16.4	-3.39
Ben Wallace	89	90	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	-1	-5	14.3	13.6	0.73	15.0	13.6	1.41
Corliss Williamson	75	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.25	-10	3	-13	14.3	14.2	0.06	14.3	16.3	-1.94

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Vanterpool	25	27	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-8	23	11.0	16.1	-5.19	16.0	13.6	2.40
Christian Laettner	62	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-4	15	14.1	16.0	-1.90	14.8	13.3	1.49
Richard Hamilton	93	90	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	6	-5	15.2	8.7	6.57	14.4	13.0	1.38
Michael Smith	70	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	6	-5	15.7	12.9	2.80	13.2	16.6	-3.32
Jahidi White	62	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	4	-1	14.7	15.1	-0.34	15.0	13.0	1.92
Hubert Davis	83	81	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	7	-7	15.7	10.5	5.17	13.4	18.3	-4.92
Courtney Alexander	75	76	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.24	1	6	-5	15.2	13.8	1.38	14.7	12.7	2.03
Laron Profit	12	13	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	4	-1	12.9	15.1	-2.19	13.1	14.4	-1.35
Mike Smith	9	10	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	6	-5	13.6	15.0	-1.41	13.6	14.3	-0.73
Loy Vaught	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	13.5	14.9	-1.39	11.3	14.3	-3.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 84, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MIL 92, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.78,0.84,0.74,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
SAC 93, SEA 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%