NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Excitement	5.4 [724]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (MIN): +22.8%
Charlotte Hornets	89		Comeback	1.0 [528]		LVP	Elden Campbell (CHH): -10.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.14	-0.01	6	93%	0.31	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.02	0.03	14	73%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	6	60%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	15	52%	0.06	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Reggie Slater	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	12	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	13	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.05	-0.01	18	58%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	15	47%	0.03	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	15	52%	-0.00	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.03
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	10	27%	-0.08	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.5	25.5	15.8	22.6	0.8	30.5	118.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +40.4%

MIN +4.8%

CHH -3.5%

MIN +3.1%

MIN +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	CHH	NBA	MIN	CHH	NBA
this game	17.5	17.6	15.5	115.9	108.5	100.9
season	15.0	15.8		102.9	99.7
opponent	15.6	15.9		97.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.0	18.4	15.8	20.4	17.5
CHH	18.3	19.4	16.2	16.5	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.30	5	1	4	17.4	19.0	-1.61	17.0	23.6	-6.53
Terrell Brandon	68	67	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.29	5	1	4	17.2	19.1	-1.87	17.4	18.3	-0.90
Wally Szczerbiak	63	60	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	2	2	17.1	19.0	-1.92	17.3	18.3	-0.98
LaPhonso Ellis	37	35	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.34	1	5	-4	19.4	16.0	3.38	17.0	18.0	-1.04
Chauncey Billups	37	37	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.30	2	4	-2	19.4	16.0	3.33	18.0	17.3	0.68
Reggie Slater	35	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	-1	8	16.5	18.3	-1.76	17.8	17.5	0.29
Anthony Peeler	55	56	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	1	4	16.3	20.0	-3.69	17.2	18.4	-1.15
Sam Mitchell	19	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	3	0	19.4	17.0	2.47	19.1	17.0	2.04
Dean Garrett	21	24	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	8	-10	17.0	17.7	-0.64	20.0	16.6	3.40

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	17	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-4	2	18.3	17.4	0.88	20.8	16.7	4.09
Eddie Robinson	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-6	6	18.4	17.1	1.27	20.9	15.5	5.48
Jamaal Magloire	43	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.42	7	-13	20	16.7	18.6	-1.99	18.8	15.9	2.88
Elden Campbell	39	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.09	-13	7	-20	18.6	16.7	1.99	15.9	18.8	-2.88
P.J. Brown	65	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.22	-4	-2	-2	17.4	18.3	-0.88	16.7	20.8	-4.09
David Wesley	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-2	-2	17.4	18.7	-1.25	16.5	23.1	-6.60
Baron Davis	69	70	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	2	-10	17.7	17.3	0.34	17.1	19.9	-2.80
Jamal Mashburn	75	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.31	-6	0	-6	17.4	19.9	-2.47	17.5	18.3	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 104, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.3,0.18,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.02,0.01,0	93.7%
PHI 118, MIN 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.15,0.16,0.01,0.04,0	93.7%
BKN 101, NOH 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.07,0,0	93.6%