NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	107		Excitement	5.7 [659]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +13.5%
New Jersey Nets	100		Comeback	1.7 [695]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (NJN): -14.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.00	6	87%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Scott Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	7	65%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Darvin Ham	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	20	57%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	12	61%	0.06	4	-0.12	9	78%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	20	41%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	14	61%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	13	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	10	64%	0.03	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	0.01	20	39%	-0.12	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.03	0.05	16	50%	-0.05	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.6	25.9	14.8	24.5	1.5	34.2	123.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +27.4%

MIL +5.4%

MIL +3.2%

MIL +11.7%

MIL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.2	15.5	113.8	105.3	100.9
season	14.9	15.5		105.9	97.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	13.8	17.7	15.2	15.3
NJN	17.5	15.0	13.6	14.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	39	41	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.24	16	-9	25	14.5	15.8	-1.24	14.9	15.4	-0.54
Tim Thomas	47	49	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.14	19	-12	31	15.4	15.1	0.23	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Scott Williams	38	39	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.17	18	-11	29	16.0	14.7	1.28	15.9	14.7	1.12
Ervin Johnson	61	62	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.13	16	-9	25	16.0	13.8	2.23	14.7	16.2	-1.49
Ray Allen	81	82	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-5	17	15.0	16.7	-1.66	15.1	16.1	-1.00
Jason Caffey	28	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	13	-19	15.8	15.0	0.74	17.8	14.1	3.70
Sam Cassell	71	70	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.26	-15	22	-37	15.5	14.7	0.76	15.2	15.2	0.07
Darvin Ham	42	42	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.15	-12	19	-31	14.6	15.8	-1.26	15.0	15.4	-0.46
Glenn Robinson	63	62	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.18	-13	20	-33	14.7	16.4	-1.62	14.8	16.0	-1.21

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Eschmeyer	37	36	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-18	29	15.3	15.2	0.14	16.2	14.7	1.50
Keith Van Horn	73	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-9	11	14.6	17.3	-2.74	14.9	16.7	-1.82
Stephon Marbury	84	83	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-10	13	14.8	18.2	-3.36	15.0	17.6	-2.68
Lucious Harris	74	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-3	-1	14.9	16.4	-1.56	15.3	15.2	0.02
Kenyon Martin	90	89	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-9	11	15.0	18.8	-3.79	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Sherman Douglas	30	29	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.11	-14	7	-21	16.9	14.4	2.52	15.9	15.0	0.96
Johnny Newman	35	34	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	6	-19	15.9	14.8	1.11	14.0	16.0	-1.94
Aaron Williams	52	51	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.09	-22	15	-37	16.0	14.2	1.83	16.2	14.2	2.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.15,0.17,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 118, WAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
UTA 103, CLE 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
ATL 97, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%