NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	5.1 [766]		MVP	Vinny Del Negro (PHX): +11.0%
Phoenix Suns	97		Comeback	2.7 [663]		LVP	Robert Pack (DEN): -11.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	19	54%	0.07	6	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	11	36%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	10	40%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	7	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.01	15	56%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	11	63%	0.07	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.02	-0.06	6	41%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	0.01	13	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	20	48%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	26.0	15.4	21.4	1.7	28.4	117.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +20.3%

PHX +15.2%

PHX +5.1%

PHX +3.8%

PHX +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	16.6	14.7	15.5	89.1	105.4	100.9
season	15.2	14.9		101.4	97.7
opponent	15.4	15.2		96.2	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.0	15.3	19.4	15.2	16.6
PHX	15.8	16.0	14.0	13.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	57	55	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-17	19	15.5	18.4	-2.90	14.8	14.5	0.27
Antonio McDyess	44	42	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-14	13	17.3	16.0	1.23	16.8	12.9	3.89
James Posey	11	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-11	7	18.8	16.3	2.48	13.8	14.8	-0.97
Voshon Lenard	36	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	-7	-1	19.2	15.0	4.17	15.9	13.9	2.00
Kevin Willis	42	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-11	7	16.3	16.9	-0.55	15.0	14.4	0.60
Robert Pack	48	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-10	5	15.6	17.7	-2.06	14.3	15.1	-0.86
Raef LaFrentz	60	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	-1	-13	17.5	15.0	2.45	14.3	15.4	-1.13
George McCloud	63	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	-4	-7	15.6	18.9	-3.26	14.4	15.3	-0.93
Mark Strickland	25	25	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.15	-11	-4	-7	15.6	17.0	-1.36	13.2	15.2	-2.02
Nick Van Exel	68	69	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	0.09	-23	8	-31	17.4	14.5	2.83	14.2	16.1	-1.94

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	53	54	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.06	20	-5	25	14.7	14.6	0.06	18.1	14.6	3.45
Jason Kidd	77	77	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.09	18	-3	21	14.2	17.3	-3.10	16.6	17.0	-0.44
Rodney Rogers	68	67	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	5	5	14.3	15.8	-1.51	15.9	18.6	-2.70
Mario Elie	43	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	3	9	15.8	13.7	2.05	19.2	14.2	4.99
Clifford Robinson	69	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.11	17	-2	19	14.6	15.0	-0.38	16.5	17.1	-0.67
Tony Delk	57	56	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	10	-5	14.3	15.2	-0.90	15.3	18.7	-3.44
Vinny Del Negro	37	38	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	18	-21	14.5	14.8	-0.27	15.7	17.3	-1.66
Daniel Santiago	15	13	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	17	-19	13.7	14.9	-1.20	14.0	17.1	-3.06
Elliot Perry	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	18	-21	13.7	14.7	-0.97	13.7	16.7	-3.06
Jake Tsakalidis	37	39	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	14	-13	16.5	13.4	3.08	17.4	16.1	1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.29,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 82, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.6,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
SAC 80, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.98,1,1	93.9%
PHX 79, BKN 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.68,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%