NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Excitement	3.0 [1132]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +12.7%
Denver Nuggets	71		Comeback	1.7 [460]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): -10.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.03	-0.05	14	67%	0.14	2	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	6	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	9	44%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	6	75%	0.01	3	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	5	64%	0.02	4	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Terrell Brandon	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	11	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.14	-0.00	-0.09	8	32%	-0.04	3	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	9	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	8	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	4	30%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	64%	-0.01	2	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	8	37%	0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	13	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	7	21%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.6	26.4	16.4	22.5	2.4	28.3	121.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +28.7%

MIN +3.0%

MIN +12.2%

MIN +6.6%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	17.0	15.5	97.8	80.7	100.9
season	15.0	15.2		102.9	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.9		104.1	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	17.3	15.2	14.5	15.2
DEN	14.6	19.7	17.7	16.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	67	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.31	28	-10	38	15.0	15.9	-0.92	17.0	17.0	0.07
Sam Mitchell	26	26	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.11	15	3	12	15.1	15.2	-0.17	18.1	16.6	1.51
Terrell Brandon	62	59	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.06	13	5	8	15.5	14.5	1.05	17.2	16.7	0.43
Anthony Peeler	41	39	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.07	12	6	6	14.4	15.8	-1.38	17.1	17.0	0.07
Dean Garrett	36	35	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.23	17	1	16	16.6	14.3	2.34	17.6	16.6	0.93
Reggie Slater	38	36	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.18	15	3	12	14.2	15.9	-1.74	17.8	16.5	1.34
Chauncey Billups	50	49	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	12	-6	15.8	14.4	1.38	17.0	17.1	-0.07
William Avery	29	29	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	13	-8	14.5	15.5	-1.05	16.7	17.2	-0.43
Wally Szczerbiak	57	54	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.16	11	7	4	15.4	14.9	0.41	16.8	17.3	-0.46
Felipe Lopez	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	26	-34	14.5	15.3	-0.77	14.7	17.2	-2.49
Rasho Nesterovic	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	26	-34	14.5	15.3	-0.77	14.7	17.2	-2.49
LaPhonso Ellis	33	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.43	-16	34	-50	15.5	15.0	0.45	16.0	17.6	-1.54

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	36	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-22	26	16.4	17.4	-1.01	14.8	15.4	-0.61
Ryan Bowen	37	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.06	-1	-17	16	16.7	17.3	-0.58	15.3	15.1	0.16
James Posey	39	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-19	20	15.9	17.9	-1.95	15.3	15.1	0.14
Terry Davis	16	16	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-18	18	16.6	17.1	-0.47	13.2	15.6	-2.44
Kevin Willis	20	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-11	4	19.0	16.4	2.57	17.0	14.6	2.44
Robert Pack	35	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-11	4	17.5	16.7	0.79	15.8	14.8	0.96
Raef LaFrentz	50	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.24	-17	-1	-16	17.1	16.9	0.11	14.2	16.6	-2.39
Nick Van Exel	59	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	-7	-4	16.7	17.6	-0.91	15.7	14.2	1.45
George McCloud	45	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	-4	-10	17.9	16.1	1.75	15.2	15.2	-0.09
Antonio McDyess	57	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.09	-16	-2	-14	16.7	17.6	-0.98	15.9	13.9	1.94
Voshon Lenard	46	47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.17	-22	4	-26	17.5	16.5	1.02	14.4	16.0	-1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 106, POR 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
BOS 107, PHI 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
HOU 119, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%