NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	91		Excitement	5.6 [679]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +16.5%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	1.8 [882]		LVP	Bryant Stith (BOS): -18.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Moiso	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Chris Carr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	7	71%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0	0.07	-0.02	0.05	12	82%	0.12	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Milt Palacio	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.04	4	-0.10	9	67%	0.01
Chris Herren	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.04,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	17	47%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	10	27%	-0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.08	-0.03	18	62%	0.23	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	14	59%	0.11	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.04	-0.04	7	29%	-0.03	4	-0.12	3	33%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	31.0	15.6	26.5	2.3	32.3	133.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +52.9%

BOS -1.4%

BOS -4.5%

DAL +2.5%

DAL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.4	15.5	97.8	105.4	100.9
season	15.1	15.2		99.7	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		101.2	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.2	14.6	16.7	15.0	15.6
DAL	18.1	14.2	14.6	15.0	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Moiso	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-8	9	10.0	15.7	-5.70	2.0	15.8	-13.83
Chris Carr	2	2	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-3	-1	1.5	15.9	-14.39	18.5	15.3	3.18
Chris Herren	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.31	6	-13	19	15.5	15.6	-0.10	14.4	16.0	-1.63
Mark Blount	26	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-2	-3	16.2	15.3	0.85	16.0	15.1	0.89
Milt Palacio	26	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	1	-9	14.9	15.9	-0.97	14.0	16.0	-2.01
Vitaly Potapenko	54	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.31	4	-11	15	15.7	15.5	0.21	16.0	14.5	1.54
Eric Williams	36	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	0	-7	15.0	15.9	-0.95	14.4	16.0	-1.67
Kenny Anderson	37	35	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	0	-7	15.4	15.7	-0.25	16.3	14.8	1.53
Bryant Stith	74	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-5	3	16.0	13.8	2.18	15.8	13.7	2.06
Paul Pierce	89	88	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-7	7	15.6	16.0	-0.44	15.4	16.0	-0.65
Antoine Walker	86	84	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.22	-13	6	-19	16.0	10.7	5.26	15.8	11.7	4.12

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	59	59	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-1	9	15.9	14.4	1.49	16.4	14.2	2.17
Michael Finley	85	87	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.25	8	-1	9	15.4	14.7	0.70	15.3	19.8	-4.55
Eduardo Najera	55	55	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	0	7	14.7	16.4	-1.66	14.6	16.9	-2.31
Dirk Nowitzki	59	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-4	15	15.8	14.7	1.07	16.4	14.1	2.35
Howard Eisley	54	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	0	7	14.9	16.1	-1.19	14.9	16.4	-1.53
Steve Nash	69	69	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	7	-7	15.1	16.3	-1.22	15.9	14.6	1.34
Gary Trent	30	29	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.13	1	6	-5	16.2	15.0	1.15	15.6	15.6	0.01
Shawn Bradley	54	54	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.18	-7	14	-21	15.4	15.3	0.09	15.4	15.8	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.73,0.9,0.96,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 99, GSW 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	93.6%
SAS 94, DET 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1	93.5%
MIL 85, MIN 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.3%