NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	102		Excitement	7.8 [247]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +23.0%
Toronto Raptors	113		Comeback	3.2 [671]		LVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): -22.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Adonal Foyle	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	93%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Corie Blount	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	14	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Vonteego Cummings	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0,0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	29	46%	-0.09	1	-0.01	10	60%	-0.06
Bob Sura	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	16	30%	-0.14	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.00	16	35%	-0.16	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.09

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.12	-0.03	24	61%	0.32	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.07	0.01	9	83%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	0.00	4	82%	0.14	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	8	75%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.07	0.05	10	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	12	42%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	0.00	14	36%	-0.12	2	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	22.4	17.3	27.1	1.8	35.2	131.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +48.8%

TOR +18.0%

GSW -9.9%

GSW -3.9%

GSW -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	14.6	15.7	15.5	106.2	120.2	100.9
season	15.0	15.8		95.3	103.7
opponent	15.4	14.9		101.6	104.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	13.2	15.8	16.7	14.6
TOR	14.9	15.1	16.2	16.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bob Sura	86	83	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-7	3	14.5	16.1	-1.65	15.3	19.0	-3.73
Adonal Foyle	58	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.19	2	-13	15	14.8	14.3	0.56	16.2	14.9	1.27
Vonteego Cummings	53	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-5	-1	14.2	15.2	-1.02	16.1	15.2	0.91
Larry Hughes	74	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.16	-9	-2	-7	15.2	12.8	2.40	15.8	15.2	0.62
Antawn Jamison	87	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-3	-5	14.5	15.4	-0.90	15.7	16.1	-0.46
Corie Blount	46	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	4	-19	14.5	14.7	-0.20	15.1	16.2	-1.14
Mookie Blaylock	76	75	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	4	-19	14.6	14.7	-0.16	15.8	15.3	0.48

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	55	58	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.20	14	-3	17	15.4	16.2	-0.82	14.2	15.2	-0.97
Alvin Williams	49	51	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.15	15	-4	19	15.9	15.5	0.37	14.2	15.1	-0.83
Dell Curry	36	37	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-6	23	14.5	16.5	-1.99	14.4	14.8	-0.40
Vince Carter	74	77	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	2	7	15.5	16.4	-0.89	14.6	14.7	-0.07
Mark Jackson	67	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.20	6	5	1	15.9	15.1	0.83	15.6	12.5	3.04
Charles Oakley	58	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	2	7	15.1	16.7	-1.61	15.1	13.9	1.22
Antonio Davis	75	74	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	12	-13	16.4	12.8	3.58	14.6	14.9	-0.31
Morris Peterson	56	57	-0.44	0.94	-1.37	-0.02	-14	25	-39	16.3	14.8	1.49	14.1	15.5	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.89,0.72,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, DAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%
ATL 107, NYK 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.62,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.91,1	92.7%
CLE 97, SEA 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.54,0.48,0.71,0.57,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.9,0.84,0.94,0.99,1	92.6%