NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	97		Excitement	3.3 [1087]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (UTA): +8.4%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	1.1 [819]		LVP	John Stockton (UTA): -11.8%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	8	72%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Karl Malone	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	18	60%	0.08	1	-0.00	14	71%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	8	52%	0.04	0	0.00	9	67%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	4	80%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	100%	0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.18	-0.00	-0.06	10	23%	-0.08	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	14	64%	0.09	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.06	0.00	0.11	19	52%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	12	53%	0.02	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	13	43%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	25.8	15.0	27.2	2.3	38.5	133.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +34.3%

UTA +2.7%

DEN -0.2%

UTA +13.2%

UTA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DEN	NBA	UTA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	17.3	15.5	111.5	102.2	100.9
season	16.0	15.2		105.3	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.1	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	13.8	19.7	13.7	15.0	15.4
DEN	19.5	18.2	17.6	14.4	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Starks	47	49	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.04	15	-9	24	15.1	15.7	-0.55	18.7	15.6	3.05
John Stockton	56	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	2	2	15.8	14.7	1.03	17.0	17.8	-0.87
Karl Malone	64	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	2	2	14.5	17.9	-3.41	17.7	16.1	1.61
Donyell Marshall	64	67	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.29	1	5	-4	14.4	18.1	-3.65	17.0	18.3	-1.29
Danny Manning	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	4	-2	14.9	15.8	-0.88	15.3	18.9	-3.59
Olden Polynice	24	24	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	-4	14	15.5	15.4	0.08	20.7	16.0	4.66
Greg Ostertag	43	43	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.24	-1	7	-8	17.4	13.4	3.99	16.9	17.7	-0.86
Bryon Russell	57	58	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.39	-7	13	-20	15.9	14.5	1.38	16.1	19.5	-3.40
Jacque Vaughn	31	33	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	4	-2	14.7	15.8	-1.03	17.8	17.0	0.87
John Crotty	9	8	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	6	-6	19.3	14.9	4.38	18.9	17.1	1.73

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	14	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-10	14	19.2	16.9	2.27	17.1	15.1	1.97
Mark Strickland	38	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.29	7	-13	20	16.9	17.6	-0.67	16.7	14.5	2.20
Robert Pack	21	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-5	4	16.7	17.5	-0.83	14.4	15.7	-1.26
George McCloud	61	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-9	12	16.1	19.9	-3.73	14.9	16.5	-1.57
James Posey	39	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	5	-16	19.6	15.5	4.16	16.9	14.1	2.77
Nick Van Exel	68	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-1	-4	17.5	16.7	0.83	15.7	14.4	1.26
Voshon Lenard	64	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	2	-10	16.6	19.2	-2.58	14.6	17.5	-2.92
Antonio McDyess	82	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-1	-4	17.1	19.3	-2.15	15.2	17.7	-2.59
Kevin Willis	58	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.07	-14	8	-22	17.8	16.4	1.41	14.9	16.4	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, CHA 69	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.16,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAC 121, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
DET 111, LAL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.11,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%