NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	4.5 [899]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +12.0%
Boston Celtics	88		Comeback	1.0 [427]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -10.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
A.C. Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	16	53%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	14	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	7	38%	-0.06	1	-0.00	7	43%	-0.04
Anthony Mason	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	4	58%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Brian Grant	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	13	47%	0.00	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.05	-0.06	22	53%	0.14	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.03
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	21	60%	0.16	5	-0.12	3	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	4	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	6	47%	-0.01	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	32.0	14.8	27.6	2.0	35.0	138.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +39.3%

MIA -0.9%

BOS +8.6%

MIA -2.9%

BOS +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.0	16.8	15.5	89.4	103.5	100.9
season	16.3	15.1		98.4	99.7
opponent	15.4	16.1		101.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	21.6	16.2	16.3	14.7	17.0
BOS	15.4	17.3	18.9	16.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	31	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.09	1	-13	14	16.0	17.6	-1.58	15.7	17.6	-1.88
A.C. Green	42	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.25	2	-14	16	16.8	17.3	-0.54	16.8	16.9	-0.11
Brian Grant	65	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-10	8	18.2	13.2	5.02	17.8	14.0	3.84
Cedric Ceballos	17	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.16	-12	0	-12	15.8	17.4	-1.59	12.4	17.9	-5.51
Dan Majerle	42	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	-5	-2	16.1	18.0	-1.91	15.4	18.2	-2.72
Bruce Bowen	49	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-5	-2	17.2	16.8	0.40	18.1	15.0	3.14
Anthony Mason	66	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	1	-14	16.8	18.0	-1.24	16.2	19.1	-2.91
Tim Hardaway	54	52	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	1	-14	17.6	16.0	1.58	17.6	15.7	1.88
Eddie Jones	59	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.21	-9	-3	-6	17.2	16.8	0.38	17.6	14.9	2.75

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	75	75	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	1	10	16.8	17.3	-0.51	17.3	14.8	2.53
Antoine Walker	78	77	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	0	12	16.7	18.6	-1.88	17.7	10.7	6.94
Bryant Stith	59	57	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	4	4	16.6	17.4	-0.77	16.5	18.1	-1.60
Randy Brown	56	57	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	6	0	16.3	18.0	-1.70	15.5	20.2	-4.74
Vitaly Potapenko	55	56	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	6	0	18.4	14.0	4.45	15.7	19.5	-3.77
Mark Blount	27	26	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.07	5	7	-2	14.6	17.9	-3.25	20.8	15.4	5.49
Eric Williams	39	41	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	6	0	16.6	17.0	-0.38	16.6	17.5	-0.92
Kenny Anderson	23	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	8	-4	17.3	16.7	0.69	21.5	15.4	6.09
Milt Palacio	6	5	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	10	-8	20.3	16.6	3.75	14.4	17.2	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.89,0.89,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, ATL 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,1,1	94.9%
SAS 87, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.8%
LAC 119, HOU 123	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.77,0.79,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.98,1	94.8%