NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	86		Excitement	2.6 [1180]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +10.6%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.0 [1148]		LVP	Vitaly Potapenko (BOS): -10.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	24	54%	0.08	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.04	10	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	3	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	17	56%	0.01	5	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	-0.07	3	0%	-0.04	5	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	6	21%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	3	133%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	-0.00	0.07	14	77%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	9	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	10	68%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.00	0.04	10	70%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	64%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	7	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	5	36%	-0.01	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	28.2	16.3	21.6	2.4	24.3	117.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.2%

MIA +11.9%

BOS -7.3%

MIA +15.9%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	15.4	15.5	96.6	123.1	100.9
season	15.1	16.3		99.7	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.4		96.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.9	16.9	18.8	14.4	16.6
MIA	14.4	15.2	16.4	15.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	17	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.25	-10	-16	6	17.1	16.5	0.53	16.0	15.2	0.77
Walter McCarty	22	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-27	28	14.8	17.2	-2.41	15.2	15.5	-0.31
Eric Williams	27	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.25	-13	-13	0	16.2	16.8	-0.64	14.7	15.7	-1.02
Chris Carr	23	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-23	20	16.0	16.9	-0.91	14.4	15.8	-1.41
Kenny Anderson	57	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.29	-18	-8	-10	16.7	16.5	0.15	15.8	14.8	1.06
Randy Brown	32	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-18	10	16.5	16.7	-0.15	14.8	15.8	-1.06
Antoine Walker	70	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	-12	-2	16.8	16.1	0.73	15.5	14.9	0.69
Mark Blount	42	41	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.32	-22	-4	-18	17.0	16.3	0.75	15.4	15.4	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	44	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.17	-17	-9	-8	16.9	16.4	0.55	15.3	15.5	-0.25
Bryant Stith	40	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	-13	0	17.5	15.9	1.63	15.6	15.2	0.41
Paul Pierce	71	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.03	-13	-13	0	16.4	17.5	-1.09	15.7	14.1	1.62

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	53	51	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.38	31	-5	36	15.6	15.1	0.57	18.0	14.8	3.16
Bruce Bowen	62	60	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.35	29	-3	32	15.6	14.8	0.82	17.4	15.1	2.26
Brian Grant	54	54	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.32	26	0	26	15.6	15.1	0.42	17.8	14.9	2.92
Anthony Mason	71	69	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.26	21	5	16	15.4	15.4	-0.02	16.7	16.4	0.23
Eddie Jones	46	46	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.35	24	2	22	15.8	14.9	0.94	17.3	15.9	1.35
Dan Majerle	37	36	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.07	10	16	-6	14.7	15.9	-1.19	16.7	16.6	0.06
A.C. Green	40	38	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	20	-14	15.4	15.3	0.12	15.6	17.4	-1.83
Todd Fuller	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	27	-28	14.7	15.5	-0.83	15.1	17.0	-1.87
Eddie House	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	30	-34	14.6	15.5	-0.83	14.4	16.8	-2.39
Anthony Carter	38	38	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	31	-36	15.1	15.6	-0.57	14.8	18.0	-3.16
Cedric Ceballos	29	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	33	-40	15.2	15.5	-0.26	14.6	17.6	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 68, VAN 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
DAL 103, NOH 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
MIA 62, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%