NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	7.9 [227]		MVP	Ron Mercer (CHI): +39.2%
Chicago Bulls	105		Comeback	4.6 [58]		LVP	Metta World Peace (CHI): -16.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.17,0.17	0.02	0.16	0.01	14	61%	0.20	1	-0.02	13	69%	0.02
Terry Porter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.08	0.00	6	50%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Dial	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.06	0.02	15	65%	0.03	2	-0.06	13	77%	-0.09
Steve Kerr	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.14	-0.01	-0.13	-0.00	10	58%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.39	0.39	0.09	0.29	-0.01	22	63%	0.45	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.05
Bryce Drew	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.07	0.15	0.00	7	86%	0.27	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.13	0.01	15	69%	0.26	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	6	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.03
Khalid El-Amin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	7	43%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	9	36%	-0.09	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.7	29.7	15.6	24.4	2.3	33.6	132.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +35.4%

SAS -10.5%

CHI +17.8%

SAS -3.0%

CHI +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.5	113.0	114.1	100.9
season	15.9	16.4		103.4	95.2
opponent	15.1	15.5		104.9	96.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.2	14.5	16.5	17.0	15.5
CHI	14.6	16.8	14.8	17.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Dial	21	19	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.03	6	-7	13	14.9	15.7	-0.80	16.4	15.7	0.75
Antonio Daniels	38	38	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.07	2	-3	5	15.0	15.8	-0.77	15.2	16.2	-1.00
Steve Kerr	27	25	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-4	7	14.9	15.7	-0.78	16.8	15.5	1.34
Malik Rose	33	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	2	-5	15.8	15.3	0.48	15.7	15.9	-0.26
Danny Ferry	37	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	4	-9	15.9	15.2	0.78	15.1	16.3	-1.15
Tim Duncan	81	82	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.45	5	-6	11	15.1	18.3	-3.17	15.9	15.1	0.81
Derek Anderson	73	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-3	5	15.8	14.4	1.33	15.6	16.9	-1.39
David Robinson	70	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.50	-4	3	-7	15.8	14.5	1.23	15.8	15.9	-0.11
Sean Elliott	38	41	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.56	-4	3	-7	15.8	15.2	0.62	16.3	15.5	0.80
Terry Porter	42	44	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.48	-7	6	-13	15.3	15.6	-0.27	16.1	15.5	0.59

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	77	75	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.54	7	-6	13	15.4	18.0	-2.60	15.7	14.6	1.09
Brad Miller	56	56	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.52	6	-5	11	15.3	16.6	-1.29	15.5	15.4	0.15
Marcus Fizer	36	37	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-8	17	16.3	15.5	0.74	14.8	15.9	-1.16
Ron Mercer	83	84	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	-1	3	15.6	18.3	-2.78	15.8	12.1	3.67
Fred Hoiberg	46	47	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.50	-4	5	-9	17.0	14.7	2.30	15.7	15.2	0.46
Corey Benjamin	9	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	2	-3	18.3	15.6	2.78	12.1	15.8	-3.67
Metta World Peace	52	52	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	3	-5	14.7	17.3	-2.65	15.5	15.5	0.01
Khalid El-Amin	10	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	2	-3	18.2	15.5	2.66	12.9	15.8	-2.89
Elton Brand	64	63	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.06	-7	8	-15	16.2	15.0	1.14	15.5	15.5	-0.06
Michael Ruffin	27	28	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	5	-9	16.0	15.7	0.30	16.3	15.1	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.27,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.55,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 79, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.22,0.43,0.16,1	92.2%
DAL 112, NOP 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.67,0.31,1	91.4%
UTA 86, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	90.9%