NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	4.9 [805]		MVP	Marc Jackson (GSW): +17.4%
Golden State Warriors	85		Comeback	1.2 [902]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): -21.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	65%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	12	68%	0.07	2	-0.03	10	90%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Tim Hardaway	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.11	0.02	-0.06	14	37%	0.01	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	5	43%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Anthony Mason	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	16	50%	0.01	5	-0.10	6	83%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.19	0.01	0.03	14	87%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bill Curley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	12	38%	-0.09	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	12	25%	-0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	15	45%	-0.06	5	-0.12	8	62%	-0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.06	0.01	17	44%	-0.08	5	-0.14	7	86%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	31.2	14.8	27.2	1.6	34.4	135.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.8%

MIA +1.9%

MIA +12.4%

MIA +13.2%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.5	100.0	93.4	100.9
season	16.3	15.0		98.4	95.3
opponent	14.9	16.1		104.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	15.4	16.7	14.1	15.5
GSW	16.3	14.5	15.3	17.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	90	86	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-3	14	15.5	15.3	0.13	15.8	17.4	-1.64
Tim Hardaway	76	74	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.15	11	-3	14	14.7	19.0	-4.33	15.3	18.4	-3.16
Brian Grant	73	72	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	1	6	14.8	17.9	-3.11	15.9	15.7	0.20
Eddie Jones	65	62	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	0	8	15.9	14.4	1.58	15.8	16.0	-0.23
A.C. Green	54	53	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.23	4	4	0	15.9	14.9	1.02	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Anthony Carter	53	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	5	-2	15.9	14.9	0.94	16.2	15.4	0.82
Bruce Bowen	54	55	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	12	-16	16.1	14.6	1.46	16.7	14.5	2.23

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bill Curley	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-7	6	16.0	15.8	0.16	13.8	15.6	-1.74
Chris Porter	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-7	6	16.6	15.4	1.21	17.8	14.3	3.47
Vinny Del Negro	15	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	18.1	15.4	2.74	16.1	15.3	0.80
Vonteego Cummings	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-8	8	16.4	15.4	1.08	15.0	15.8	-0.83
Adam Keefe	39	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-5	2	15.6	16.0	-0.36	15.4	15.5	-0.09
Antawn Jamison	84	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	16.1	12.7	3.39	15.5	15.4	0.04
Mookie Blaylock	71	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	3	-14	15.0	18.9	-3.91	14.5	18.9	-4.38
Larry Hughes	85	87	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	15.6	18.8	-3.20	15.4	16.2	-0.75
Marc Jackson	84	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	15.6	18.6	-2.95	15.7	12.3	3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0	95.1%
VAN 110, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
SAS 94, CHA 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0	95.0%