NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	80		Excitement	5.0 [795]		MVP	Eric Piatkowski (LAC): +4.4%
Los Angeles Clippers	92		Comeback	2.8 [182]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -25.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	14	53%	0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Monty Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	3	12%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	4	57%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07
Pat Garrity	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.01	0.05	8	50%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	8	12%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	23	30%	-0.15	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	11	65%	0.08	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	67%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	17	47%	0.05	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	48%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	3	20%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	28.5	16.6	25.1	2.3	25.4	123.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +32.7%

LAC +15.5%

LAC +11.1%

ORL -9.9%

LAC +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	LAC	NBA	ORL	LAC	NBA
this game	16.1	19.0	15.5	97.6	112.2	100.9
season	14.6	16.1		101.6	99.5
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.6	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.4	16.6	17.4	14.8	16.1
LAC	18.9	17.7	16.9	23.1	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Troy Hudson	15	17	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.27	13	-25	38	15.5	16.2	-0.68	22.2	18.2	3.96
Andrew DeClercq	9	11	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.25	9	-21	30	13.4	16.4	-2.97	23.5	18.4	5.10
John Amaechi	24	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-15	18	18.4	15.1	3.30	17.2	19.8	-2.58
Monty Williams	24	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.33	9	-21	30	15.6	16.3	-0.65	20.4	18.4	2.03
Grant Hill	43	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.20	-10	-2	-8	15.7	16.5	-0.72	19.7	18.4	1.29
Mike Miller	32	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-11	10	15.3	16.6	-1.27	20.5	18.0	2.47
Michael Doleac	45	44	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.19	-15	3	-18	15.4	16.9	-1.47	18.5	19.6	-1.11
Pat Garrity	29	29	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-14	16	16.3	15.9	0.40	19.6	18.8	0.80
Darrell Armstrong	60	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.19	-19	7	-26	16.1	16.0	0.05	18.7	19.9	-1.24
Tracy McGrady	65	63	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	0.06	-24	12	-36	16.4	14.8	1.67	17.9	22.8	-4.88
Bo Outlaw	64	63	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	0.13	-27	15	-42	16.5	14.7	1.82	18.0	22.6	-4.68

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Piatkowski	41	41	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.17	21	-9	30	17.9	20.1	-2.22	16.1	16.0	0.12
Darius Miles	45	47	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.18	18	-6	24	18.5	19.7	-1.21	16.9	15.0	1.89
Sean Rooks	54	54	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	4	4	18.5	20.1	-1.57	16.7	14.8	1.92
Jeff McInnis	63	63	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.10	19	-7	26	19.2	18.5	0.66	16.1	16.1	-0.03
Lamar Odom	68	69	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	10	-8	20.1	13.7	6.42	16.1	16.0	0.10
Quentin Richardson	38	37	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.06	8	4	4	18.9	19.1	-0.22	15.8	16.3	-0.55
Keyon Dooling	19	19	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.25	-7	19	-26	18.5	19.2	-0.66	16.1	16.1	0.03
Michael Olowokandi	28	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.15	4	8	-4	20.1	18.5	1.57	14.8	16.7	-1.92
Brian Skinner	27	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	11	-10	20.1	18.5	1.60	14.7	16.8	-2.06
Derek Strong	10	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	19	-26	18.6	19.1	-0.50	16.0	16.1	-0.09
Corey Maggette	17	17	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	19	-26	17.6	19.4	-1.83	16.5	16.0	0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.65,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
HOU 102, MIN 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
NJN 105, SAC 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.69,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%