NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	4.9 [815]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +16.1%
Utah Jazz	98		Comeback	1.2 [249]		LVP	Karl Malone (UTA): -16.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.04	-0.02	20	63%	0.19	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.02	11	71%	0.14	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	79%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Howard Eisley	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	73%	0.04	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	13	53%	0.01	7	-0.13	6	100%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.01	0.07	9	83%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.03	13	59%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
John Stockton	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	13	47%	0.06	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	10	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	39%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	7	30%	-0.10	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	14	35%	-0.11	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	30.3	15.4	25.2	1.6	31.4	130.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +59.7%

DAL +9.8%

UTA -10.5%

UTA -7.2%

UTA -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	UTA	NBA	DAL	UTA	NBA
this game	14.6	16.2	15.5	115.1	104.3	100.9
season	15.2	16.0		104.6	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		100.5	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	11.7	13.6	15.9	17.6	14.6
UTA	15.4	19.1	14.1	16.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	79	79	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.17	13	-4	17	14.6	14.5	0.09	16.7	13.5	3.19
Michael Finley	86	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-2	13	14.7	13.3	1.40	16.0	18.3	-2.35
Shawn Bradley	44	45	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	2	5	15.6	13.7	1.87	17.7	14.9	2.79
Eduardo Najera	23	21	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	-3	15	15.8	14.2	1.60	17.6	15.8	1.81
Dirk Nowitzki	70	71	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.20	0	9	-9	14.0	16.3	-2.23	15.6	18.2	-2.65
Christian Laettner	61	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	6	-3	14.0	15.7	-1.64	16.0	16.8	-0.81
Hubert Davis	46	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	9	-9	15.8	13.4	2.34	16.9	15.6	1.32
Howard Eisley	56	58	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	10	-11	13.5	16.3	-2.81	14.8	18.6	-3.80

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	35	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.00	-1	-8	7	14.9	17.0	-2.11	12.9	15.5	-2.58
Jacque Vaughn	48	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.24	5	-14	19	16.8	15.6	1.27	16.1	13.0	3.15
Danny Manning	9	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.10	-1	-8	7	19.7	15.8	3.82	14.0	14.7	-0.66
Donyell Marshall	32	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-4	-1	18.4	15.1	3.33	14.1	14.8	-0.69
David Benoit	22	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-6	3	14.8	16.6	-1.82	16.0	14.2	1.83
DeShawn Stevenson	44	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	-2	-5	15.0	17.3	-2.32	12.9	16.1	-3.17
Quincy Lewis	35	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-4	-1	17.4	15.5	1.85	15.4	14.1	1.26
Greg Ostertag	34	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.03	-9	0	-9	18.9	14.7	4.14	15.5	14.1	1.45
Bryon Russell	69	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	15.0	19.7	-4.72	14.3	15.3	-0.96
Karl Malone	81	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-6	3	15.9	18.3	-2.43	15.0	12.2	2.82
John Stockton	61	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	2	-13	16.0	16.7	-0.75	14.1	15.4	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 103, CHH 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
IND 95, ORL 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0	95.7%
ORL 102, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0	95.6%