NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	9.5 [78]		MVP	Shawn Marion (PHX): +31.3%
Phoenix Suns	84		Comeback	3.0 [522]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -38.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	5	90%	0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	4	70%	0.11	4	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	15	46%	-0.10	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.03
Brian Grant	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	12	41%	-0.11	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.08
Tim Hardaway	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.01,-0.21	-0.01	-0.21	-0.01	15	56%	-0.14	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.07
Eddie Jones	-0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.39,-0.39	-0.22	-0.18	-0.01	15	21%	-0.27	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.04

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0,0,0,0.31	0.31	-0.00	0.30	-0.01	12	69%	0.44	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.03
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.00	13	50%	0.11	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.07
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Garces	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	13	48%	-0.04	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.06
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	11	43%	-0.05	3	-0.12	6	50%	-0.05
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-0.00	2	33%	-0.05	3	-0.16	2	0%	-0.05
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.16	-0.18	-0.01	20	33%	-0.27	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	31.3	14.8	26.1	2.5	33.2	135.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +42.5%

PHX +13.2%

PHX +2.7%

MIA -10.9%

PHX +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	14.7	15.8	15.5	86.3	89.4	100.9
season	16.3	14.9		98.4	97.7
opponent	15.4	16.1		96.2	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	14.8	13.2	15.3	14.7
PHX	13.7	15.9	16.3	17.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.C. Green	48	48	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-7	12	14.5	14.9	-0.48	14.9	16.7	-1.78
Todd Fuller	0	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	0	-2	0.0	14.7	-14.69	9.0	15.9	-6.86
Anthony Carter	38	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.23	2	-4	6	14.5	14.8	-0.37	16.3	15.4	0.93
Duane Causwell	23	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.11	-10	8	-18	16.4	14.2	2.24	15.4	15.9	-0.55
Brian Grant	52	51	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.60	9	-11	20	14.2	15.3	-1.11	17.7	13.5	4.24
Bruce Bowen	72	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	0	-2	14.3	15.8	-1.44	15.2	17.4	-2.13
Eddie Jones	81	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	1	-4	15.0	12.9	2.07	16.1	14.3	1.81
Anthony Mason	90	89	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.36	-3	1	-4	14.7	14.2	0.52	15.6	20.0	-4.45
Tim Hardaway	71	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.39	-6	4	-10	14.8	14.5	0.26	15.4	16.8	-1.38

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Santiago	46	48	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.47	9	-7	16	14.8	16.8	-2.01	14.4	15.0	-0.52
Clifford Robinson	73	72	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-4	10	16.0	15.0	1.01	14.6	14.9	-0.23
Jason Kidd	79	82	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.30	8	-6	14	15.3	18.1	-2.79	14.7	14.7	0.00
Tony Delk	64	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.52	-2	4	-6	15.7	15.9	-0.17	14.7	14.8	-0.11
Shawn Marion	77	78	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.41	1	1	0	15.9	15.1	0.82	14.6	15.2	-0.66
Corie Blount	3	4	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	-4	10	10.0	16.0	-5.98	17.5	14.6	2.93
Jake Tsakalidis	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	2	-2	16.9	15.6	1.27	15.7	14.6	1.17
Mario Elie	45	43	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.06	-2	4	-6	16.6	15.0	1.64	14.7	14.7	0.09
Ruben Garces	10	9	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	9	-16	16.5	15.7	0.80	13.4	14.8	-1.38
Rodney Rogers	47	48	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	4	-6	14.7	16.8	-2.09	15.0	14.4	0.57
Chris Dudley	15	15	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.02	-7	9	-16	20.2	14.9	5.25	14.7	14.7	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.8,0.74,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.36,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.55,0.58,1	90.9%
POR 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	90.8%
CHI 74, PHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.68,0.58,1	90.8%