NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	6.5 [489]		MVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): +6.3%
San Antonio Spurs	103		Comeback	3.6 [590]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -15.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	10	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	9	63%	0.08	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Sam Jacobson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	17	51%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.00	-0.05	0.06	9	55%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Kevin Garnett	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	21	47%	-0.00	5	-0.15	3	33%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	15	67%	0.19	6	-0.13	6	67%	-0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	18	64%	0.14	2	-0.08	9	100%	0.06
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	52%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	10	61%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	31.3	30.8	29.2	1.8	34.3	157.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +14.8%

SAS +30.0%

SAS +12.8%

MIN -11.0%

SAS +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	15.7	15.5	101.1	112.0	100.9
season	15.0	15.9		102.9	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.9		96.5	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.5	13.4	18.7	16.4	15.9
SAS	14.5	17.2	14.9	16.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	49	51	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.22	9	-21	30	16.0	15.8	0.26	17.3	13.8	3.56
William Avery	3	5	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-14	16	6.0	16.3	-10.26	5.2	16.3	-11.13
Sam Jacobson	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	9.0	16.1	-7.08	12.0	15.8	-3.81
Reggie Slater	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	9.0	16.1	-7.08	12.0	15.8	-3.81
Dean Garrett	41	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-11	10	16.0	15.9	0.14	16.1	15.5	0.61
Chauncey Billups	67	68	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	-10	8	16.7	13.5	3.22	16.8	12.8	3.97
LaPhonso Ellis	27	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-11	10	15.2	16.2	-1.05	14.7	16.2	-1.45
Kevin Garnett	73	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	-2	-8	16.6	13.2	3.39	16.1	14.0	2.15
Anthony Peeler	48	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	0	-12	14.4	17.6	-3.23	14.5	17.1	-2.61
Sam Mitchell	24	25	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	1	-14	15.3	16.2	-0.86	13.7	16.5	-2.76
Rasho Nesterovic	43	45	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.04	-17	5	-22	16.8	15.1	1.75	15.8	15.7	0.10
Terrell Brandon	71	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.03	-19	7	-26	16.1	15.2	0.97	15.8	15.4	0.45

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	41	39	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-3	18	14.8	16.5	-1.62	15.8	16.0	-0.27
Derek Anderson	68	68	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.01	20	-8	28	15.4	16.6	-1.16	16.6	13.8	2.78
Danny Ferry	40	38	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	4	4	14.8	16.4	-1.64	15.0	16.6	-1.55
Antonio Daniels	42	39	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.32	-2	14	-16	14.8	16.5	-1.69	14.6	16.9	-2.26
Tim Duncan	75	74	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.02	8	4	4	16.2	13.5	2.77	16.2	14.4	1.81
Avery Johnson	50	51	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.17	14	-2	16	16.5	14.8	1.69	16.9	14.6	2.26
Sean Elliott	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	8	-4	16.4	14.8	1.64	16.6	15.0	1.55
David Robinson	46	46	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	9	-6	16.7	14.7	2.02	16.4	15.5	0.92
Samaki Walker	24	23	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	15	-18	13.4	16.5	-3.13	13.7	16.7	-3.05
Steve Kerr	7	6	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	14	-16	20.1	15.4	4.78	16.8	15.9	0.98
Terry Porter	17	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	18	-24	15.1	15.9	-0.75	12.7	16.6	-3.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 104, IND 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.25,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.7,0.62,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.93,1,1,1	93.4%
CHI 77, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.4%
PHI 75, CHH 84	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.98,1	93.3%